Doctor of Mathematics, Chinese Academy of Sciences commented on ＂Taobao double 11 data fraud＂： perfect fit is possible.

Yin Liqing, a V-certified user in Weibo, published "The News of double 11 Sales Data Falsification of Taobao from 2009 to 2018", which caused a heated discussion on the Internet. On this matter, "Tan Jing is charging" interviewed the doctor of applied mathematics of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He pointed out a small problem that the cubic regression curve is not a "linear formula".

Yin Liqing mentioned in the article that "the production data are almost perfectly distributed on the cubic regression curve, and the fitting degree is over 99.94%." "The data is too perfect" and "the linear formula set as expected" and so on, the conclusion points to "Taobao double 11 scam". Alibaba Taobao did not respond accordingly.

On this matter, "Tan Jing is charging" interviewed the doctor of applied mathematics of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He pointed out a small problem that the cubic regression curve is not a "linear formula".

In fact, the technological development curve behind double 11 is more worthy of attention than the sales growth curve. The problem of "perfect fit", a small probability event, may be found from the business point of view. For example, corporate marketing activities will have their own market objectives and budgets. Once the plan is made, the executive team will definitely complete the performance KPI through various marketing means.

If (please re-read here) when making the activity budget, the expectation of market growth is planned according to a certain curve, it is not surprising that it can be "perfectly fitted". Of course, if there is such a situation, we have to ask Alibaba to reply.

(The researcher added, because I haven’t seen the original data, the conclusion is not rigorous, and it only represents my personal opinion. )