CCTV News:Have you ever heard of it as a frequent shopper?"consumption rebate"?

　　Recently, some third-party platforms are under the banner of "entrepreneurship" and "innovation", with the gimmicks of "shopping back to the original", "consumption equals making money" and "you spend and I pay back the money".Promise to return high or even full consumption and franchise fees.And so on, in order to attract consumers and businesses to invest.

　　Recently, the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Commerce, the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Markets jointly reminded the public to be alert to this kind of "consumer rebate" that is different from the normal business rebate promotion activities! So what are the "routines" here?

　　"Routine 1": High rebate is difficult to achieve.

　　Rebate funds mainly come from commodity premium income and fees paid by members and franchisees. Most platforms do not have legitimate real economy and income matching their promised returns, so it is difficult to maintain capital operation and high rebate for a long time.

　　Some platforms absorb public and business funds through online and offline channels, such as "prepaid consumption" and "recharge", and a large amount of funds are controlled by the platform, which has the risk of transferring funds and running away.

　　Some platforms fictionalize profit prospects, promise high returns, instruct or acquiesce members and franchisees to fictionalize commodity transactions, pay a certain percentage of fees directly to the platform, and seek high rebates. In this way, the platform achieves the goal of quickly absorbing public funds. Some platforms also use pyramid schemes, with the so-called "dynamic income" as bait, requiring participants to pay entry fees and "attract people to join" and get commissions by developing offline. The above-mentioned behaviors of the platform and participants are characterized by illegal fund-raising and pyramid schemes.

　　Therefore, once again remind everyone that the operation mode of such platforms violates the law of value. Once the capital chain breaks, participants will face serious losses. According to the relevant regulations, participation in illegal fund-raising is not protected by law, and you are at your own risk and responsibility; It is illegal to participate in pyramid schemes and will bear corresponding responsibilities according to law. The general public and businesses are requested to be vigilant, enhance risk prevention awareness and identification ability, and prevent damage to interests. At the same time, the clues of illegal crimes can be actively reflected to the relevant departments. (CCTV reporter Liu Ying Ge Xiaowei picture from business micro news)

　　CCTV News:On July 17th, WeChat official account, Heilongjiang Government WeChat reported that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Harbin issued the Notice on Further Improving the Prevention and Control of Normalized Epidemic Situation. Recently, sporadic and local outbreaks occurred in many provinces in China, and the spread scope continued to expand, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control remained severe and complicated. In order to continuously adhere to the general strategy of "external defense input, internal defense rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic zero clearing", effectively protect the health of the people, prevent the hidden spread of the epidemic, and scientifically, accurately and effectively do a good job in the prevention and control of the normalized epidemic in Harbin, according to the requirements of the novel coronavirus Prevention and Control Plan (Ninth Edition) and combined with the actual situation in Harbin, the relevant matters are hereby notified as follows:

　　First, for those who have lived in high-risk areas within 7 days, take 7 days of centralized isolation medical observation; For those who have lived in a medium-risk area within 7 days, they will be observed in isolation at home for 7 days. If they do not have the conditions for observation at home, they will be observed in centralized isolation.

　　Second, for those who have lived in other low-risk areas in the counties (cities, districts and banners) where the middle and high-risk areas are located within 7 days, complete the nucleic acid detection twice in 3 days (the sampling interval is more than 24 hours) and do a good job in health monitoring.

　　Three, for seven days in the prefecture-level city (or municipality directly under the central government) where the high school risk area is located in other counties (cities, districts, flags), a free nucleic acid test as soon as possible within 24 hours after arriving at the destination.

　　Four, people who arrive in Kazakhstan from other cities need to report to the community (village), accommodation hotels and units 2 days in advance. The personnel who arrived in Kazakhstan in the prefecture-level city (or municipality directly under the Central Government) where the epidemic is not located advocate completing two nucleic acid tests in three days (sampling interval is more than 24 hours) and doing a good job in health monitoring.

　　Five, "three stations and one field" and highway inspection points need to check the health code and negative proof of nucleic acid test within 48 hours for people who arrive in Kazakhstan outside the country. Abnormal health code shall be handled according to relevant procedures. If the health code is green, but the negative certificate of 48-hour nucleic acid test is not held, the nucleic acid test shall be carried out once for free, and it is not necessary to wait for the result and arrive at the place of residence.

　　Six, for freight vehicle drivers and passengers who have lived in high school risk areas within seven days, on the basis of holding negative proof of nucleic acid test within 48 hours, green code of health code, normal body temperature test and meeting epidemic prevention requirements, closed-loop management measures such as reporting in advance and point-to-point transportation are implemented to ensure passage, and "nucleic acid+antigen" test is carried out free of charge at the destination, and control measures are implemented according to requirements.

　　Seven, the recent travel history of personnel, please pay close attention to the epidemic area published cases and asymptomatic infection trajectory information and high-risk area information. Strictly restrict access to high, middle and low-risk areas where local epidemics occur.

　　Eight, the majority of residents should actively respond to the national vaccination policy, especially those over 60 years old who have no vaccination contraindications should be vaccinated as soon as possible, and those over 18 years old who have not been vaccinated with booster shots should be vaccinated in time.

　　Nine, the general public, as the first person responsible for self-health, should adhere to good hygiene habits such as frequent hand washing, wearing masks, regular ventilation, public chopsticks system, "one-meter line", cough etiquette, cleaning and disinfection, and healthy lifestyles such as reasonable diet and moderate exercise.

Experts interpret the resolution of 65 nm mask aligner.

Recently, the discussion about "65nm mask aligner" on the Internet is quite enthusiastic, but many comments lack authoritative basis, which leads to many people’s increasingly vague understanding of this technical concept. Some people explain the resolution of 65 nm mask aligner only by "8 nm alignment accuracy", and this simplified treatment deepens the confusion. Fortunately, with the promotion of popular science, the public has gradually reached a consensus: the prototype of the ArF light source mask aligner with 65 nm resolution and 8 nm overlay accuracy is about "XT:1460K" model introduced by ASML Company 20 years ago.

The next question is, can this mask aligner reach a higher level of chip manufacturing node with the help of multiple exposure technology? Looking back on an article published by IEEE in 2008, this paper discusses the challenge of 193 nm mask aligner in alignment accuracy control, and we briefly summarize it by analyzing the data in this paper.

In this paper, a series of mask aligner in ASML are listed, which evolved from dry type (such as 870G to 1400E) to the first generation submerged type (such as 1700Fi and 1900Gi), and their resolution and alignment accuracy changes are shown. In the chart, the blue line at the top represents the mask aligner resolution, which is almost equivalent to the node name of the chip in the era of dry lithography. Obviously, ASML’s XT:1400E dry ArF mask aligner matches the standards of 65nm resolution and 8nm alignment accuracy.

The orange line shows the maximum allowable deviation of registration accuracy at a certain resolution, for example, at a resolution of 65 nm, the allowable deviation is 11 nm. Therefore, the alignment accuracy of 8 nm completely meets the process standard of 65 nm. It is worth noting that before the 65 nm node, its importance has not been paid enough attention because of the large margin of overlay accuracy. When it reaches 65 nm, as dry lithography approaches the limit, the surplus space of alignment accuracy almost disappears.

It should be emphasized that the above registration accuracy standard is based on a single exposure.

In fact, ASML skipped the 65nm mask aligner and directly entered the immersion technology for the mass production of 32nm and 28nm chips. However, historical data show that the company has explored the use of a 65nm dry mask aligner with a numerical aperture of 0.93 to achieve a resolution of 40nm through double exposure technology, which was documented in the IEEE conference in 2006.

It is pointed out that for the 65nm mask aligner with a numerical aperture of 0.93, the registration accuracy required by a single exposure is 8nm, and it is required to be further improved to 5.6nm in the double exposure mode. This means that even the 8 nm alignment accuracy is not enough in the face of the demand of double exposure to 40 nm resolution. Moreover, 40 nm is only the level of a single exposure of immersion mask aligner.

According to the analysis of available historical data, mask aligner with 65nm resolution and 8nm alignment accuracy is mainly suitable for the chip manufacturing process from 65nm to 55nm, and cannot effectively enter the finer manufacturing fields such as 32nm and 28nm through double exposure technology.

On February 15th, DuckDuckGo browser announced a cross-platform password sharing function yesterday.

It is reported that DuckDuckGo browser originally supported users to import bookmarks and passwords from other browsers into DuckDuckGo, but the newly added "password synchronization function" allows users to freely synchronize bookmarks and passwords of DuckDuckGo browsers on various platforms without logging in to an account.

IT House inquired about the official press release of DuckDuckGo, and learned that DuckDuckGo claimed that although competitors such as Google also provided similar cross-platform password sharing functions, while users enjoyed cross-platform password sharing, relevant private information would be quietly obtained by Google.

The advantage of DuckDuckGo is that users only need to scan the QR code to synchronize bookmarks and passwords. After the synchronization is completed, users can manually store the backup "Recovery PDF" file in a safe place. If the user’s device is lost or damaged, they can use "Recovery PDF" to recover their passwords and bookmark data.

　　Win the epidemic prevention and control war

　　Yesterday afternoon, the 132nd COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control press conference was held. Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from the press conference that recently, Beijing police investigated and dealt with a case of selling nucleic acid testing places, and nine people sold Beijing nucleic acid testing places at a price of 1,780 yuan, which seriously disrupted the normal order of nucleic acid testing in this city and was investigated and dealt with by the public security department. Four of them have been administratively detained. In addition, since June 19th, the city’s public security department has continuously investigated and dealt with 14 cases of epidemic rumors, and dealt with 10 criminals according to law. The public security department suggested that citizens should consciously resist all kinds of false information about the epidemic and jointly safeguard the hard-won achievements of epidemic prevention and control.

　　The police received the report and found clues through Weibo.

　　At the press conference yesterday afternoon, Pan Xuhong, deputy director and spokesperson of Beijing Public Security Bureau, said that in order to do a good job in the accurate control of risk personnel and prevent the spread of the epidemic, the city clearly stated that "it is not necessary to leave Beijing". If it is really necessary to leave Beijing, it is necessary to hold a negative certificate of nucleic acid testing within 7 days, and some unscrupulous people smell "business opportunities" from it, claiming that they can quickly handle testing matters and make illegal profits, which seriously affects the normal order of nucleic acid testing. Recently, the Beijing police quickly investigated and dealt with such a case.

　　Pan Xuhong said that on June 23, the police received a report from the masses, and a Weibo user posted a post saying, "Selling Beijing nucleic acid testing places, the results will be available in 24 hours and 48 hours, and the price is 1,780 yuan." After receiving the report, the police attached great importance to it and started work overnight, quickly arresting the information publisher Yan Motong (male, 23 years old). According to this person’s confession, Bai Moyu (male, 24 years old) was arrested. After in-depth investigation, Bai Mouyu was an employee of a bar, and its manager Wan Motao (male, 37 years old) organized a subordinate employee to set up a WeChat "nucleic acid detection group". Together with Yan, he posted news and solicited customers through the Internet, claiming that he could handle it urgently and get the results quickly. After increasing the price level by level, he introduced the masses to relevant institutions for nucleic acid detection, and the gang members respectively benefited from 50 yuan to 2,000 yuan. At present, the police have seized 9 people involved in the case, of which 4 people, including Yan, have been administratively detained according to law, and other people involved in the case and the case are under further investigation.

　　Since the 19th, 14 cases involving epidemic rumors have been investigated.

　　Pan Xuhong said that at present, with the joint efforts of the whole city, the epidemic prevention and control work has achieved positive results, but the situation is still severe and complicated, and we must not take it lightly. Crimes involving epidemic situation seriously infringe upon the interests of the masses and interfere with the overall situation of prevention and control work. In this regard, the Beijing police have always maintained a high-pressure situation. Since the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau issued a typical case of fabricating and spreading rumors related to the epidemic on June 19, it has continuously investigated and dealt with 14 related cases and dealt with 10 criminals according to law.

　　Recently, a netizen released the news that "a case was diagnosed in Wangfujing Department Store in Beijing, and everyone in the building had to do nucleic acid testing". According to the police, netizen Fan Moufu (male, 39 years old) deliberately fabricated the above false news to create influence and attract attention, and spread it in WeChat group, seriously disrupting social order. Another example is that Jiang (male, 33 years old), an employee of a company, lied to his colleagues that he was positive for nucleic acid testing in order to seek excitement, causing the employees of the company to panic and call the police. Both of them were dealt with by the public security organs according to law.

　　The public security department suggested that the current nucleic acid detection capacity in this city has been rapidly improved, and the detection work of key populations, key areas and key areas has been carried out in an orderly manner. It is hoped that the general public will participate in the detection through formal channels to ensure that the detection resources are used at the most critical nodes to block the spread of the epidemic. At the same time, I hope everyone will keep their eyes open, not be credulous or blindly obedient, consciously resist all kinds of false information about the epidemic and jointly safeguard the hard-won achievements in epidemic prevention and control. Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

　　case

　　Among the 13 newly confirmed cases, there was a severe case.

　　Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, reported the newly confirmed cases on the 24th at the press conference. Among them, a 60-year-old female patient was diagnosed after the fifth test because the first four sampling results were negative. According to the notification, one serious case was included in the clinical classification.

　　A sixty-year-old female patient

　　The first four sampling results were all negative.

　　Pang Xinghuo said that among the 13 newly confirmed cases on the 24th, there were 5 males and 8 females. The average age is 42 years old, the youngest is 18 years old and the oldest is 60 years old. According to the place of residence, there are 9 cases in Fengtai District and 4 cases in Daxing District. According to the clinical classification, there is 1 severe case, 10 common cases and 2 light cases. The Beijing Youth Daily reporter found that the correlation between the epidemic situation and Xinfadi is still strong. Six case work units are Xinfadi wholesale market, and five people have purchased in Xinfadi market.

　　Among the 13 confirmed cases, two people were negative for the first time, and they were positive only after further sampling. Among them, one 60-year-old female patient’s first four sampling results were negative. The specific situation is: Case 13, female, 60 years old, lives in Tuanheyuan Community, Kannonji Street, Daxing District, and has retired. On June 3rd, I went to Xinfadi Market for purchase. On June 14th, as a close contact of the confirmed case, I began to observe in isolation. On June 16th, I developed fever symptoms. On that day, I was transported to Daxing District People’s Hospital by 120 ambulances. From June 15th to 22nd, I collected throat swabs for nucleic acid detection four times, all of which were negative. On June 23rd, I was positive for nucleic acid detection, and on June 24th, I was diagnosed. The clinical classification was common.

　　Among the 13 patients diagnosed on the 24th, the youngest is 18 years old, who went to Xinfadi market for purchase on June 11th. Patients were mainly in their parents’ homes and had contact with friends before being isolated. During this period, they went to Xiangxiang Breakfast and Soup-stock Lamian Noodles near Ba Zhuangzi Village in Huaxiang (region) successively, and went shopping in nearby shops.

　　One case went shopping in Jubaoyuan, niujie.

　　All the employees in this store were negative for nucleic acid detection.

　　In addition to the residential area where the case lived and the Xinfadi market, the patients diagnosed yesterday visited many places, such as Majialou Zhongxing Huamu Wholesale Center in Fengtai District, Xinqing North Lane in Xihongmen Town, Dinghuixie Kitchen Restaurant in Haidian District and niujie Jubaoyuan Catering Co., Ltd..

　　The reporter of Beiqing Daily noticed that one of the 38-year-old male patients, as the manager and buyer of Dinghuixie Kitchen Restaurant in Haidian District, often went to Xinfadi Wholesale Market for shopping. On June 15th, he drove to niujie Jubaoyuan Catering Co., Ltd. for shopping. Niujie Jubaoyuan Restaurant said in an interview with the media yesterday afternoon that the case had been shopping at the take-out window of the restaurant and had never entered the store. All the employees of the store had been tested for nucleic acid, and the results were negative. At that time, the patient only had contact with the window salesperson. The salesperson had finished the nucleic acid test and the result was negative. He was observing in isolation at home and the restaurant was open normally. Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

　　point out

　　Please remember these new features of Beijing Health Bao upgrade version 3.0.

　　At yesterday’s press conference, Pan Feng, deputy director of Beijing Economic and Information Technology Bureau, said that up to now, a total of 29 million people in the city have used Health Bao to check their health status for 360 million times. Since the launch of the code scanning function, the city has generated a total of 340,000 QR codes of the registration book, and about 5 million people have achieved electronic registration through code scanning. After upgrading to version 3.0, Beijing Health Bao will provide online code scanning function and electronic registration service. All units returning to work and production should use the code scanning function. After personal code scanning registration, only two digits of surname and ID number are reserved. Teenagers under the age of 16 are not forced to carry out face recognition. They only need to press the photo area for 3 seconds in the result page to take photos again. Those who report or lie about their health status will be held accountable according to law.

　　Pan Feng introduced that this health treasure upgrade has added a code scanning function, which can be used in commercial buildings, restaurants, shopping malls and other places. Specifically, each place can designate a special person as a registrar. By filling in the relevant information of the unit, the registrar applies for obtaining the QR code of the register directly or printing and posting it. Visitors can register by scanning the QR code, and the corresponding health status will also be presented when scanning the code. If the visitor’s status is abnormal, the ambulance call tone will be directly prompted when scanning the code, which is convenient for the registrar to quickly identify. Registrars can view visitors’ information in real time through mobile terminals such as mobile phones, or manage it after exporting, or delete the register as needed. Only the registrar whose health status is "no abnormality" can apply for the registration book. When the registrar’s health status is abnormal or there are violations of laws and regulations, the registration book will be deactivated and invalid.

　　Pan Feng introduced that the version 3.0 package was optimized and improved in combination with the opinions and suggestions on the use of teenagers, photo replacement and national platform verification. First, teenagers under the age of 16 are not forced to carry out face recognition, and the results page directly displays photos and related status, and the bottom of the photos is marked with "photos of minors without face recognition"; The second is to improve the photo replacement method. You only need to press the photo area for 3 seconds on the result page to take a new photo. The third is to optimize the national platform trip verification interface. At the same time, the new version adds a notice bar and a message bar at the top and bottom respectively to facilitate communication and interaction.

　　Recently, some parks, banks, supermarkets and other places have launched humanized search service based on the "others’ search" function of Health Treasure, which has solved the use problems of some elderly people. In addition, after this upgrade, a very small number of users have reported the problem of incomplete display of the health treasure page, which can be solved by upgrading the WeChat version.

　　Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu Cartography/Pan Wei

　　remove doubts

　　What if the health treasure turns red and yellow?

　　You need to contact CDC or your community.

　　If your health treasure turns into a red "centralized observation" state, it means that you belong to the people who have been diagnosed, suspected, closely contacted or asymptomatic infected by the health department of this city since the outbreak. Please fulfill the obligation of centralized observation as required. If you have any questions, please contact the municipal CDC.

　　If your health treasure turns into a yellow "home observation" state, it means that you have visited related places such as Xinfadi through community arrangement, and the community has included you in the home observation management. Please follow the community management requirements. Please contact your community if you have any questions.

　　If your health treasure shows the pop-up status, in one case, you have recently entered and exited Beijing. Please click "Continue" on the page to jump to the national platform for itinerary verification. In another case, you may have recently entered and exited the middle and high-risk areas, so please contact your community or relevant units immediately to report for duty, so as to correctly fulfill your epidemic prevention obligations.

　　Is there a false negative problem in nucleic acid testing?

　　Expert: Beijing adopts the "1+3" model.

　　Wang Guiqiang, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the First Hospital of Peking University, said at yesterday’s press conference that there are also false negatives in nucleic acid testing, and people with negative results in nucleic acid testing should not be taken lightly.

　　Wang Guiqiang said that the control of the COVID-19 epidemic emphasized "four early days", and the important link was nucleic acid detection, which is the most important method to diagnose infection at present. The COVID-19 epidemic in Beijing has also strengthened the ability of nucleic acid detection. On the basis of all tests, Beijing has also tested high-risk groups. Including all kinds of personnel related to the new site, high-risk communities and towns, all medical personnel, and industries in close contact with the crowd, have also been tested, which is an important measure to control the epidemic. Beijing maintains the life safety and health of personnel at all costs. More than half of the cases in the city were found through proactive nucleic acid detection. However, there is a false negative in nucleic acid testing. In fever clinics, Beijing has now adopted a "1+3" model, that is, nucleic acid testing plus serological antibody testing, plus imaging and blood testing. The actual purpose is to further reduce the risk of missed diagnosis and effectively control the epidemic.

　　Is seafood, beef and mutton still edible?

　　Covid-19 is not infected by digestive tract.

　　At present, many residents are afraid to eat meat for fear of being infected. At yesterday’s press conference, Wang Guiqiang, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the First Hospital of Peking University, also made suggestions on this phenomenon. He said that the epidemic mainly occurred in the epidemic market of Xinfadi. At present, the meat, eggs and seafood in other shopping malls in Beijing are safe, and citizens can buy and eat with confidence.

　　At the same time, Wang Guiqiang suggested that Covid-19 is mainly transmitted through droplets and close contact, and there is no evidence that the virus can be transmitted through the digestive tract. The risk of transmission through the digestive tract is very low. However, Wang Guiqiang also reminded the general public that it is a period of high incidence of digestive tract diseases, so food must be well cleaned and cooked separately, otherwise it may lead to the spread of digestive tract diseases, and it is recommended to eat less raw food.

　　Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

　　I. Macroeconomic performance

　　(1) Gross domestic product

　　1. The macroeconomic boom is declining, and the economic growth rate is slowing down quarter by quarter. Since 2018, China’s macroeconomic growth rate has continued to decline slightly, basically in the downward stage of the boom cycle, which is basically consistent with the global economic operation.

　　According to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 totaled 90.0 trillion yuan, and the nominal GDP increased by 9.7% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from 2017; The real GDP increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the actual growth rate decreased by 0.2[1] and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with 2017 and the first three quarters, and it declined quarter by quarter. Among them, the year-on-year real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter [2] dropped to 6.4% (Figure 1-1), which was the same as that in the first quarter of 2009, and the lowest since the data was recorded (1992). It should be noted that the economic growth in 2018 is still in a stable range, which has not deviated from the target range of "around 6.5%" set at the beginning of the year, nor has it brought obvious pressure on employment.

　　2. The basic role of consumption has been enhanced, investment has weakened year-on-year, and net exports have returned to a negative pull on economic growth. In terms of troika, in 2018, consumption drove GDP growth by 5.0 percentage points, 0.9 percentage points higher than that in 2017. In the context of the continuous decline of zero social growth rate during the year, service consumption maintained rapid growth, which further enhanced the basic role of consumption in economic growth. In 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down sharply, which led to the weakening of the contribution of investment to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points, down 0.1 percentage points from 2017. Due to the sharp narrowing of the trade surplus in goods, the trade deficit in services has significantly expanded, and net exports have declined year-on-year. In 2018, net exports lowered the GDP growth rate by 0.6 percentage points, while in 2017, it was positively pulled by 0.6 percentage points. Therefore, from the perspective of total demand, the slowdown in GDP growth in 2018 is mainly due to the negative impact of net exports and the decline in investment contribution, while consumption has become a ballast stone to stabilize the macro economy.

　　(II) Three industries and their operation conditions

　　1. The growth rate of the three industries generally declined, and the leading role of the service industry was stable. In terms of three industries, the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year in 2018, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 2017, but still faster than the GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point in the same period, indicating that the service industry continued to play a leading role in the macro-economy. The added value of the secondary industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than that of 2017 and 0.8 percentage point lower than that of GDP in the same period. The main reason is that China is now in the late stage of industrialization, and the share of industry in the national economy has declined. The added value of the primary industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017. In 2018, the growth rate of the three industries generally declined, which was basically in sync with the slowdown in GDP growth (Figure 1-2), indicating that the weakening of the demand side was positively transmitted to the production side and had a wide impact.

　　From the perspective of contribution rate and pull rate, in 2018, the service industry played a stable leading role in economic growth, with its contribution rate to GDP growth of 60.1% and pull rate of 4.0 percentage points, both higher than that of the secondary industry [3], but 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that of 2017, which is confirmed by the slowdown of service industry production growth. In 2018, the national service industry production index increased by 7.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017.

　　2. The growth rate of industrial production has slowed down steadily. In 2018, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with 2017, showing a steady slowdown. Among the three categories, the mining industry has accelerated its production, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the added value of the industry in the whole year is 3.8 percentage points faster than that in 2017, mainly due to rising prices, high profits, reduced capacity and environmental protection and limited production. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of added value of electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 1.8 percentage points faster than that of 2017, which was consistent with the growth trend of power generation in the same period, mainly reflecting the impact of changes in energy structure. Due to the weakening of terminal demand, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing added value, which accounts for nearly 90% of the industry, dropped by 0.7 percentage points compared with 2017, which dragged down the growth rate of industrial added value in 2018 (Figure 1-3).

　　The profits of industrial enterprises grew rapidly, and the trend was high before and low after the year. In the first 11 months of 2018, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 9.2 percentage points compared with the same period in 2017. From the trend of the year, with the decline of PPI growth rate and the impact of industrial production slowdown on corporate profits, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises dropped sharply in the second half of the year, and the year-on-year growth rate in November dropped to -1.8%, which was the first negative year-on-year increase in the past three years (Figure 1-4).

　　(3) Investment in fixed assets

　　1. Infrastructure investment slowed sharply, and investment kinetic energy accelerated to switch. In 2018, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points compared with 2017, mainly due to the drag of infrastructure investment. From the perspective of the three major types of investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly. The annual infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 19% in 2017, while the growth rate of real estate and manufacturing investment accelerated (Figure 1-5).

　　The weakening of infrastructure investment in 2018 reflects the impact of strict supervision: First, the source of funds is limited. Local government debt supervision has been continuously strengthened, financing platforms have been strictly constrained, and off-balance sheet financing has continued to shrink sharply. Second, the centralized rectification of PPP has led to the suspension of some infrastructure projects, thus impacting infrastructure investment.

　　It is worth noting that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the third quarter rarely increased negatively. From July to September, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was -1.8%, -4.3% and -1.9% respectively. Since the fourth quarter, with the macro-policy turning to steady growth, the short board of infrastructure has begun to accelerate, driving the monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment back to the positive range. The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in October-December was 6.7%, 3.7% and 3.8% respectively. Further, the stabilization of infrastructure has led to a rebound in the growth rate of fixed asset investment.

　　2. The growth rate of real estate investment has accelerated, while sales have slowed down. In 2018, real estate investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.5 percentage points faster than that in the same period of 2017, mainly due to the sharp year-on-year increase in new construction area driven by previous destocking and higher land acquisition expenses. During the year, the newly started area increased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was greatly accelerated by 10.2 percentage points compared with 2017 (Figure 1-6); From January to November, the land purchase fee increased by 60.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 38.6 percentage points faster than that of the same period in 2017.

　　In 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area and sales was 1.3% and 12.2%, respectively, which was lower than that in 2017 and the first three quarters (Figure 1-7). The cooling market sentiment led to a slowdown in investment in the fourth quarter. From October to December, the growth rate of real estate investment was 7.7%, 9.3% and 7.8% respectively, which was significantly lower than the high point in July (13.2%).

　　3. The supporting role of new kinetic energy is enhanced, the marginal capacity of traditional industries is weakened, and the growth of manufacturing investment is accelerated. In 2018, manufacturing investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points faster than that in 2017. From the perspective of sub-sectors, in 2018, investment in traditional manufacturing industries such as automobile manufacturing, food and beverage, textile and clothing, and chemical industry continued to be weak, while investment in high-tech manufacturing industries such as special equipment, computers, communications, and other electronic equipment maintained rapid growth, and new kinetic energy became the main support of the manufacturing industry. In addition, due to the marginal weakening of the policy of de-capacity, investment in industries related to de-capacity, such as steel, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products, rebounded, and the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry was boosted to some extent.

　　It is worth mentioning that in 2018, private fixed assets investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 2.7 percentage points compared with 2017 (Figure 1-8). Private investment is mainly concentrated in manufacturing industry, which is consistent with the rebound of manufacturing investment growth rate in the same period. However, the lower profits of industrial enterprises and the trade friction between China and the United States may adversely affect private investment.

　　(4) Consumption

　　1. The slight decrease in income has slowed down the zero growth rate of the society, and the consumption structure has shifted from physical objects to services. In 2018, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points compared with 2017. On the one hand, this steady and slightly declining trend is consistent with the income trend of residents: in 2018, the per capita disposable income of urban residents nationwide increased by 7.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017. On the other hand, in 2018, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points faster than that in 2017, which deviated from the downward trend of zero social growth rate reflecting commodity consumption, indicating that residents’ service consumption is accelerating and confirming the transformation of consumption structure (Figure 1-9).

　　2. Consumption of commodities above designated size is generally depressed, with the decline of automobile retail sales as the main drag. Looking at the retail sales of various categories of goods above designated size, the growth rate of retail sales of most categories of goods in 2018 was not as fast as that in the same period of 2017, among which the retail sales of automobiles, which accounted for about 30% of the total, decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 8.0 and 2.6 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2017 and the first three quarters. Since May, the automobile retail sales have been continuously negative growth, and the decline at the end of the year has expanded to about 10%, which has become the main reason for the overall decline in the zero growth rate of the society.

　　New formats such as online consumption remain active. In 2018, the national retail sales of online goods and services increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 8.3 percentage points lower than that in 2017, but it was still in the high-speed growth range. The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 25.4% year-on-year, which was 16.4 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 18.4% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, up 3.4 percentage points from 2017.

　　(5) Import and export

　　1. Foreign trade achieved rapid growth, and the trade surplus narrowed significantly. In dollar terms, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade increased by 12.6% year-on-year in 2018, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points faster than that in 2017. Among them, exports increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year, both of which maintained a relatively rapid growth momentum (Figure 1-10). It should be noted that the year-on-year growth rate of China’s imports and exports in the fourth quarter dropped significantly compared with the previous three quarters, due to the weakening of internal and external demand, the weakening of the effect of "grabbing exports" and the weakening of the supporting role of price factors, so the trend in the year was high before and low after. According to our calculation, the import and export volume in the fourth quarter increased by 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, which was significantly lower than the cumulative growth rate of 20.2% and 12.2% in the previous three quarters.

　　In terms of trade balance, China’s foreign trade surplus in 2018 totaled US$ 351.8 billion, down 16.2% year-on-year, indicating that the pull of net exports of commodity trade on economic growth continued to weaken.

　　2. The global economy affects China’s export trend, and the impact of Sino-US trade friction is becoming more and more obvious. In 2018, China’s export volume increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.0 percentage points faster than that in 2017, reflecting that external demand remained strong in general under the background of the continuous expansion of the external economy.

　　From the trend of the year, the momentum of global economic expansion slowed marginally in 2018, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline from 54.4% at the beginning of the year to 51.2% at the end of the year (Figure 1-11). Among the major economies, the economic growth momentum of the euro zone and Japan tends to weaken, and only the US economy is stimulated by tax cuts to grow strongly. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the rise of the US dollar index led to the intensification of macroeconomic fluctuations in a number of emerging markets, and the local currency depreciated significantly. The weakening of external fundamentals is the main reason why the growth rate of China’s export trade was high before and then low during the year.

　　Since 2018, the trade friction between China and the United States has been heating up [4], which has a great impact on market sentiment. However, the relevant tariff measures have only officially landed since the second half of the year, and the impact of the increase in tariff rate on the import and export trade volume has to be filtered by factors such as tariff conductivity and price elasticity of demand, as well as the phenomenon of "grabbing exports" from the United States. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole year, Sino-US trade friction has not significantly dragged down China’s export growth. However, with the decline of the "export-grabbing" dividend, the impact of export demand overdraft appears, and the negative effects of Sino-US trade friction will gradually be released, which has been reflected in the export data in December.

　　3. Higher commodity prices have superimposed policy effects, and imports have maintained high growth. In 2018, China’s imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year. Under the background of high base and weak domestic demand, China’s imports continued to grow at a high speed in 2018, which benefited from three factors: First, the marginal domestic demand weakened, but the overall resilience was strong, which played a fundamental role in driving import growth; Second, the rebound in crude oil prices has led to higher commodity prices, which have obviously supported the growth rate of imports; Third, the intensive introduction of import expansion policies in 2018 has played a certain role in boosting import growth.

　　However, the growth rate of imports slowed down significantly at the end of the year, and the import volume in December turned negative year-on-year, with a drop of 7.6%, the lowest in nearly two and a half years. On the one hand, the impact of slowing domestic demand on import demand has gradually emerged. As of December, China’s manufacturing import PMI index has been in a contraction range for six consecutive months; On the other hand, due to the slowdown of global economic growth, the price increase of major commodities and industrial products weakened and the year-on-year increase generally narrowed, and the supporting role of price factors on import growth decreased accordingly.

　　(6) Prices

　　1. CPI has risen significantly year-on-year, but it is still at a moderate growth level. In 2018, CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017, which exceeded 2.0% for the first time in four years. During the year, the CPI generally showed a trend of low before and then high. Excluding the disturbance of the Spring Festival in January and February, the CPI peak appeared in September and October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. However, since November, the upward trend of CPI has obviously eased, and the year-on-year increase in December has dropped to 1.9%, mainly due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, the continuous downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices and the lower price of pork. Overall, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has increased, it is still in a moderate range, which has not constrained monetary policy (Figure 1-12).

　　It is worth noting that pork prices have a great influence on the trend of CPI. In 2018, pork prices showed a trend of falling first, then rising and then falling. Due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, pork prices continued to fall in the first half of the year and the decline expanded month by month, dragging down CPI year-on-year. Since June, the sluggish pig market and local epidemics have caused the supply of pork to tighten, and the superimposed trade friction has pushed up the price of soybean meal. The price of pork has stabilized and rebounded, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed month by month, and the CPI has also rebounded simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, pork prices generally declined due to the effect of "grabbing the column" caused by the expansion of swine fever epidemic.

　　2. The high cardinal number superimposed the balance of supply and demand, and the PPI dropped significantly year-on-year. In 2018, PPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, which was 2.8 percentage points lower than that in 2017 (Figure 1-13). The main reason is the high base in 2017, coupled with the weakening of supply-side capacity reduction and environmental protection and limited production, the decline in demand-side investment and consumption growth, and the decline in support for PPI. From the trend point of view, except for the sharp rise in international oil prices in the second quarter, which led to the rebound of domestic PPI, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI declined as a whole, with the highest month-on-year increase in June (4.7%) and the lowest in December (0.9%).

　　It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in 2018 is highly resonant with the growth rate of international oil prices, indicating that oil prices continue to be a key variable affecting the PPI trend. In the first three quarters, international oil prices fluctuated, and the year-on-year growth rate fluctuated since March, boosting the domestic PPI to rise continuously from May, and the year-on-year growth rate also exceeded general expectations. However, since the fourth quarter, the international oil price has plunged continuously after hitting the high point of the year in early October, which reflects the combined influence of weakening demand expectations, the weaker impact of the situation in the Middle East on supply and the higher US dollar index. As a result, the pulling effect of oil prices on PPI has been weakened accordingly, which has become an important reason for the decline of PPI since November and the acceleration of the year-on-year growth rate.

　　(7) Exchange rate

　　1. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has obvious amplitude and twists and turns. From the beginning of 2018 to the beginning of February 2018, the RMB basically showed an upward trend against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB dropped from 6.50 to 6.28. By the end of April, it basically fluctuated around 6.30, which was stable as a whole. From May to the beginning of December, the RMB started an obvious devaluation against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB rose unilaterally from 6.36 to 6.94, setting a new high in two years. Subsequently, by the end of 2018, the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB finally closed at 6.84. From the annual trend, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar can be described as twists and turns, and the highest amplitude of the middle price during the year [5] is close to 11% (Figure 1-14).

　　The reasons for the change of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2018 include both internal and external factors, among which external factors have a greater impact. Externally: First, the US dollar index has changed in the same period, and the trend of the US dollar index basically corresponds to the RMB exchange rate. In 2018, the US dollar index showed a trend of "falling before and then rising", with the end of April as the dividing point. Before that, it basically fluctuated around 90, and at the lowest time, it went all the way, reaching the highest of 97.69. The strength of the US dollar drives the depreciation of non-US dollar currencies, including RMB. Second, the divergence of monetary policies between China and the United States has led to the narrowing of spreads between the two countries. Under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the People’s Bank of China did not follow the domestic real economy situation, which led to the narrowing of the spread between China and the United States, thus suppressing the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar to some extent. Internally, in 2018, the degree of marketization of RMB exchange rate will be further improved, which will obviously enhance the flexibility of two-way floating of RMB exchange rate, and exchange rate fluctuation under the influence of market supply and demand is a normal phenomenon. In fact, the current exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is only a phased adjustment. If the observation period is extended, we can find that the exchange rate in 2018 has not deviated from the reasonable operating range (Figure 1-14).

　　2.CFETS index rises first, then falls and then stabilizes. In 2018, the CFETS index fluctuated due to the fluctuation of the exchange rate of major currencies caused by the change of the US dollar index (Figure 1-15). Taking the middle of the year as a watershed: the first half of the year showed a volatile upward trend, rising from 94.90 at the beginning of the year to 97.38 at the end of June. The main reason is that the currencies of other major countries have depreciated against the US dollar at this stage, while China’s economy has strong resilience and the fundamentals support the CFETS index to stabilize. In the second half of the year, it began to turn into a falling range, all the way down to below 93, but it gradually stabilized in the fourth quarter and rose slightly at the end of the year. The decline of CFETS index in the second half of the year is mainly caused by two factors: first, the monetary policy of major countries began to tighten marginally in the second half of the year, while China’s monetary policy was stable and slightly loose, which was not conducive to overseas capital inflows; Second, the trade friction between China and the United States has warmed up, which has increased the uncertainty of China’s foreign trade prospects and led to the warming of RMB bear sentiment.

　　Second, macroeconomic policies

　　(A) fiscal policy

　　1. The growth rate of fiscal revenue is high before and then low. In 2018, the proactive fiscal policy was gradually strengthened, and the growth rate of fiscal revenue gradually slowed down. Judging from the growth rate of national general public budget revenue, the growth rate in the second half of the year was 4.2 percentage points lower than that in the first half. From January to December, the national general public budget revenue exceeded 18.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.08 trillion yuan over 2017 and a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Among them, the central general public budget revenue was 8.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; The local general public budget revenue at this level was 9.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The tax revenue in the national general public budget revenue was 15.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.4 percentage points compared with 2017; Non-tax revenue was 2.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.

　　First, the steady and slow trend of fiscal revenue is obvious. From the perspective of the whole year, the fiscal revenue growth is generally stable, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to December is only 1.2 percentage points lower than that in 2017. However, on a monthly basis, it basically slowed down month by month, and the growth rate was negative in October and November. This shows that the growth rate of fiscal revenue in the whole year can remain basically stable, mainly due to the rapid growth in the first half of the year. As the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction policy is gradually released in the second half of the year, the slowdown in tax growth drives the fiscal revenue growth to slow down (Figure 2-1).

　　Second, tax cuts have significantly reduced the growth rate of tax revenue. In the first half of 2018, due to the stabilization of industrial product prices, the moderate increase in consumer prices, and the high prosperity of industry, commerce and service industries, the circulating taxes represented by value-added tax and consumption tax grew rapidly, thus driving the fiscal revenue to maintain high growth. In the second half of the year, the executive meeting of the State Council established the policy requirement of "active fiscal policy should be more active", and the degree of tax reduction and fee reduction increased significantly, which led to a significant decline in the growth of corporate income tax, personal income tax and value-added tax in the second half of the year, and the fiscal revenue began to slow down, and even decreased year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

　　Third, the fee reduction has led to a continuous negative increase in non-tax revenue. Affected by the intensified measures to reduce fees and the regulation of non-tax revenue in some areas, the year-on-year growth rate of non-tax revenue in China was always negative in 2018, and the year-on-year growth rate in July was as low as -31.93%, the lowest growth rate since January 2016 (Figure 2-1). At the same time, the continuous decline in non-tax revenue has also led to an increase in the proportion of tax revenue. In 2018, the proportion of national tax revenue to fiscal revenue increased by 1.65 percentage points year-on-year to 85.30%.

　　Fourth, the income progress is fast first and then slow. The progress of fiscal revenue in 2018 [6] has been accelerated compared with that in 2017. Since February, the progress of fiscal revenue has always been about 1.5 percentage points ahead of the same period in 2017, indicating the impact of rapid revenue growth in the first half of the year. Since July, the progress of fiscal revenue has gradually slowed down, which is about 0.8 percentage points ahead of the same period in 2017, and the leading gap has gradually narrowed, which was 0.07 percentage points in September. Since October, the progress of fiscal revenue in 2018 has begun to lag behind that in 2017, and the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction has gradually become apparent.

　　2. The fiscal expenditure maintained a high intensity, and the expenditure progress was generally accelerated. From January to December, the national general public budget expenditure was 22.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 810.9 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2017, an increase of 8.7%. Among them, the central general public budget expenditure at this level was 3.27 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year; The local general public budget expenditure was 18.82 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year.

　　First, the growth rate is basically flat, and the expenditure intensity is not reduced. In 2018, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than that in 2017. The annual expenditure showed a trend of slow before and then fast, and the scale of expenditure in the second half of the year increased significantly compared with that in the first half of 2017, which was related to the high base in the first half of 2017 and the obvious strength of fiscal expenditure in the second half of 2018. Overall, the intensity of fiscal expenditure in 2018 is relatively high. In the first quarter, the first half of the year and the first three quarters, the national general public budget expenditure progress reached 24.3%, 53.2% and 77.8% respectively, and the annual public budget expenditure scale exceeded 22 trillion yuan.

　　Second, fiscal expenditure is more cohesive and efficient. Reflected in the further optimization of the fiscal expenditure structure, financial support in the three major battles, people’s livelihood expenditures and key areas has increased. In 2018, various people’s livelihood-related expenditures [7] maintained rapid growth year-on-year; The annual expenditure on poverty alleviation reached 477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%; Expenditure on pollution prevention and natural ecological protection increased by 29.6% and 17.5% respectively. Expenditure on social security and employment, and expenditure on subsidies from basic old-age insurance funds increased by 9.7% and 11.4% respectively.

　　Third, the proportion of infrastructure expenditure in the second half of the year rose to a high point in recent years. In 2018, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment showed a significant decline, and the fiscal expenditure fully played a countercyclical hedging role. The three infrastructure expenditures (transportation, agriculture, forestry and water affairs, and urban and rural community affairs) maintained a high intensity, and showed a trend of slow before and fast after. In the first half of the year, the tightening of local debt supervision led to a decrease in the scale of off-budget infrastructure expenditure and weakened the overall infrastructure investment. Therefore, the effect of fiscal expenditure on hedging infrastructure decline was not significant: from January to June, the year-on-year growth rates of transportation and agriculture, forestry and water affairs expenditures accelerated by 0.5 and 3.7 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2017, but the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 13.8 percentage points compared with the same period of 2017. In the second half of the year, infrastructure expenditure began to accelerate gradually, which led to the stabilization of the growth rate of generalized infrastructure since October. In 2018, three infrastructure expenditures accounted for 24.7% of the total expenditure, which was 3 percentage points higher than that in 2009, when the expansionary fiscal policy was the most obvious.

　　3. The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly. Since 2018, under the tone of active fiscal policy, the scale of local government bond issuance has increased moderately, and the overall situation is slow before and then fast. In the first half of the year, under the influence of factors such as stricter local debt supervision and larger replacement quota, the pace of issuing new special bonds slowed down compared with previous years. From January to June, a total of 1.41 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, of which only 332.9 billion yuan were issued. At the meeting of the Political Bureau at the end of July, the proactive fiscal policy should be strengthened. In August, the Ministry of Finance issued a document [8] explicitly requesting to speed up the issuance of local government special bonds, and then the scale of special bond issuance increased significantly: from August to December, a total of 1.99 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, of which 1.38 trillion yuan of new bonds were issued.

　　(B) credit and monetary policy

　　1. Monetary policy focuses on the domestic market and has undergone many marginal adjustments. In 2018, China’s monetary policy will face both internal and external challenges. External uncertainties such as growth differentiation and trade friction between China and the United States weaken the independence of monetary policy, and multiple internal factors such as capital market turmoil and the downturn of the real economy hinder the implementation of the policy. Facing the complicated objective situation, China’s monetary policy has always served the needs of domestic economic operation, taking into account the internal and external balance.

　　On the premise of overall stability, monetary policy pays more attention to countercyclical adjustment, timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, and there is marginal change in tightness, and the liquidity fundamentals switch accordingly: in the first half of the year, the general tone of stability and neutrality was maintained, and it was clearly put forward that "the general gate of money supply should be managed well", and the liquidity environment was neutral and moderate; In the second half of the year, the weight of "steady growth" in the policy mix increased significantly, monetary policy appeared moderate structural easing, the liquidity of the financial system remained reasonable and abundant, and it gradually changed to "wide credit". Generally speaking, monetary policy in 2018 focuses on three key tasks: unblocking the transmission mechanism, solving the financing difficulties of private and small and micro enterprises, and coping with excessive fluctuations in asset prices.

　　First, give consideration to the internal and external balance, and "inside" and "outside". "Focus on China" is the core principle of monetary policy in 2018. From the high-level statement, President Yi Gang has repeatedly stated in public that the main basis of China’s monetary policy is the comprehensive consideration of domestic fundamentals, and the main goal is to serve the domestic real economy. From the specific practice, in 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times, but the People’s Bank of China did not obviously follow the will. During the year, it implemented two targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, two RRR cuts, and three increases in refinancing and rediscount quotas; At the beginning of October, the yield of US bonds rose sharply. On October 15, the People’s Bank of China released 750 billion yuan of incremental funds by replacing the RRR cut. It can be seen that the logic of monetary policy is "to stabilize internal and external pressures with internal stability", and to ensure the stability of various indicators at a reasonable level by improving domestic economic fundamentals.

　　The second is to maintain stability and fine-tune. In 2018, the general tone of monetary policy remained stable and neutral, and the liquidity was reasonably abundant. According to the data, the average value of DR007 during the year was about 2.71%, which was 10BP lower than that in 2017, reflecting the effect of a prudent neutral monetary policy; The average value of DR007 in the first half of the year was 2.82%, and it dropped to 2.61% in the second half of the year, and the interest rate center moved down, reflecting that the monetary policy was more flexible and the tightness was fine-tuned during the year. Only seven working days in DR007 exceeded 3%, 10 days less than that in 2017, and all of them were at the end of the quarter and the end of the year, which indicated that the overall funds were stable and loose (Figure 2-2).

　　The third is to highlight the countercyclical period and focus on stabilizing expectations. Since the second quarter of 2018, the pressure of domestic economic downturn and exchange rate depreciation has increased significantly. Correspondingly, the countercyclical adjustment role of monetary policy has been continuously strengthened, and efforts have been made to guide and stabilize expectations. Under this premise, policy tools are more flexible and liquidity management methods tend to be refined: in the first half of the year, MLF will be replaced by RRR cuts, and incremental funds will be used to support private enterprises and small businesses; Expand the scope of MLF collateral [9]; Increase the amount of refinancing and rediscount for supporting small farmers, and lower the interest rate of refinancing for small farmers; In the second half of the year, targeted cuts to required reserve ratios supported "debt-to-equity swap" and microfinance; Raise the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business to 20%; Issuing central bank bills in Hong Kong to enrich offshore RMB liquidity adjustment tools; Create a targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF). These measures are effective and precise, so as to ensure that the economy runs smoothly in a reasonable range in 2018, the financial market is expected to stabilize, and the macro leverage ratio is stable at a moderate level.

　　The fourth is to emphasize dredging transmission and improve the effectiveness of policies. In 2018, the People’s Bank of China repeatedly emphasized to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which was mentioned six times in the implementation report of monetary policy in the second quarter, aiming at breaking through the structural and local constraints of liquidity transmission, realizing "wide credit" and promoting the formation of a virtuous circle of finance and the real economy. Therefore, the monetary policy has obvious characteristics of "directional transportation+structural support", and all previous popular investments are to support the real economy, especially the financing of private and small and micro enterprises. Specifically, it includes: targeted cuts to required reserve ratios for many times, limiting the use of funds for RRR reduction, relaxing the limit on the proportion of local debt underwriting, guiding the allocation of high-grade credit bonds through the window, and simultaneously exerting efforts from three channels: loan, debt and stock through the "three arrows". There are two results: first, ensure that the total liquidity matches the real economy and avoid "flooding"; The second is to optimize the liquidity structure, improve the financing environment of the private economy, and avoid the "capital barrier lake".

　　2. The overall money supply is moderate, and the scale of social financing has dropped significantly. In 2018, the growth rate of China’s money supply further decreased and remained at a low level. By the end of the year, the balance of M2 was 182.67 trillion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 balance at the end of each month was lower than 8.5%. The balance of M1 was 55.17 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% year-on-year, down by 10.3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2017, and the growth rate was basically decreasing month by month. The rapid decline in the growth rate of M1 leads to a further widening of the scissors gap between M1 and M2 in the second half of the year (Figure 2-3).

　　At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing scale stock decreased month by month, and hit new lows (Figure 2-4). At the end of 2018, the stock of social financing scale was 20.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; The scale of social financing increased by 19.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.14 trillion yuan compared with 2017; In particular, in May, the new social integration was "waist-to-waist", and in October, the new social integration decreased by nearly 66%.

　　First, the low money supply has become the "new normal". In 2018, the money supply always maintained a low growth rate. From the first quarter to the end of the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 7.1%, 6.6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 8%, 8.3% and 8.1% respectively. On the one hand, this is the result of the coordinated and effective promotion of stable neutral monetary policy and financial supervision policy, which is conducive to controlling the internal leverage of the financial system and reducing the nested cycle of funds [10]. On the other hand, this is the inevitable result of the high-quality development stage of economy and finance. The growth rate of M1 dropped continuously, mainly due to the rapid development of third-party payment and money market funds, and the slowdown in sales caused by real estate regulation. The growth rate of M2 is obviously lower than that of previous years, and the average growth rate in the year is slightly lower than the sum of GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate in the same period by 0.44 percentage points, indicating that the current money supply is relatively matched with macroeconomic operation, and a stable monetary and financial environment is helpful to ensure the economic operation in a reasonable range.

　　Second, the overall social integration has shrunk and the structure has been optimized. In 2018, structural deleveraging continued to advance, the effect of strict financial supervision continued to ferment, and the risk appetite of the financial system declined, which led to a sharp decrease of 2.93 trillion yuan in off-balance sheet financing for the whole year, an increase of 6.5 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing scale stock hit record lows, and the incremental scale was far less than that of the same period in 2017. However, after the non-standard financing such as interbank financing, channel financing and bank financing was squeezed out, a large number of off-balance-sheet assets were returned to the table in an orderly manner. In the second half of the year, the People’s Bank of China increased the medium-and long-term liquidity, and the local government issued a large amount of special bonds from August to October. These factors jointly boosted the proportion of on-balance-sheet credit and bond financing, which became the main support for social financing in 2018, and the social financing structure was optimized. In 2018, the proportion of new RMB loans and corporate bond financing in the scale of social financing was 81.36% and 12.88%, respectively, a significant increase of 10.2 and 10.6 percentage points compared with 2017. In addition, due to the volatility of the capital market, domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises decreased by 515.3 billion yuan in 2018.

　　Third, credit tends to be short-term. In 2018, driven by the weakening of the real estate market, the high risk aversion of commercial banks and the low willingness of enterprises to invest and finance, the growth rate of short-term loans of residents and enterprises was significantly faster than that of medium-and long-term loans. In particular, the growth rate and proportion of bill financing increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, which made a great contribution to the overall credit growth. By the end of 2018, the balance of RMB loans of deposit-taking financial institutions (domestic, the same below) was 135.33 trillion yuan, up by 13.71% year-on-year, of which the balance of RMB loans of residential departments was 47.27 trillion yuan, up by 18.29% year-on-year, and short-term loans of residents increased by 21.25% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans of non-financial enterprises was 84.53 trillion yuan, up 10.43% year-on-year, and the balance of bill financing of non-financial enterprises was 5.78 trillion yuan, up 48.71% year-on-year (Figure 2-5).

　　Fourth, the bond market financing first declined and then increased. In 2018, the financing function of China’s bond market was gradually restored. In the first half of the year, there was a wave of default in the credit bond market, and the performance of the local government bond market was relatively dull. Since the second half of the year, the fiscal policy has become more active, and the issuance of special bonds by local governments has obviously accelerated; The monetary policy is marginally relaxed, the liquidity gradually turns to be reasonable and abundant, and the long-term interest rate and the issuance interest rate go down accordingly [11], and private enterprise bond financing is supported through credit risk mitigation tools. Stimulated by the above favorable policies, the bond market financing picked up significantly in the second half of the year, which led to an increase in the scale of bond financing throughout the year: in 2018, the net financing amount of corporate bonds was 2.48 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 2.03 trillion yuan compared with 2017; Local government special bonds issued 1.94 trillion yuan, and the accumulated financing amount was 1.79 trillion yuan.

　　3. Structured deleveraging was solidly promoted, and the macro leverage ratio stabilized. In 2018, China’s macro leverage ratio was basically controlled and gradually stabilized, and the leverage ratio has stabilized at around 250% in the past eight quarters. At the same time, with the continuous advancement of real estate regulation and control, the growth rate of real estate loans dropped steadily. At the end of the year, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 38.7 trillion yuan, down 0.9 percentage points from 2017; During the year, new real estate loans reached 6.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.2 and 4.9 percentage points lower than those in 2017 and 2016, respectively. The upward trend of leverage ratio in the residential sector has been basically curbed. The balance of personal housing loans was 25.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4 percentage points lower than that in 2017, and the year-on-year growth rate at the end of each quarter gradually decreased and was lower than 20% (Figure 2-6). Correspondingly, monetary policy gradually focuses on stabilizing leverage and structural deleveraging in order to achieve a balance between risk prevention and steady growth.

　　4. The depth of financial opening-up accelerated. In 2018, the pace of opening up in China’s financial sector was significantly accelerated, and the opening up of financial services entered a new pattern. In terms of policies, the proportion of foreign shares in the financial industry and the restrictions on business scope have been further relaxed, the market access standards of Chinese and foreign banks have approached unification, and the "pipeline" open system arrangement has been solidly promoted, which has promoted a more convenient and friendly domestic investment environment. On the market side, in 2018, overseas institutions increased their holdings in China’s bond market. During the year, the net inflow of foreign capital in the bond market was about 100 billion US dollars, accounting for 80% of the inflow of foreign capital in emerging markets. By the end of 2018, the proportion of foreign investors holding debt in China’s bond market reached 2.3%, and the proportion of national debt holding debt was 8.1%.

　　(3) Financial policy

　　1. The supervision has obviously strengthened its grasp of the rhythm and intensity. In 2018, financial supervision strives to find a balance between "strict supervision and risk prevention" and "wide credit and steady growth", which is a policy choice based on the objective economic situation. On the one hand, continuing the basic orientation of "strict supervision and risk prevention", the general trend of deepening financial deleveraging has not changed. In the first half of the year, the focus was on eliminating regulatory arbitrage, gradually promoting the shift from separate supervision to functional supervision, and further improving the coordination of supervision; New rules for landing asset management, maximizing arbitrage space, etc. On the other hand, to implement the spirit of the Politburo meeting in July, the word "stability" should take the lead in the second half of the year, avoiding "risks caused by risk prevention" and focusing on making up the shortcomings of supervision. The supporting rules of the new asset management regulations have been relaxed compared with market expectations; Emphasize different supervision and avoid "one size fits all"; Promote inclusive finance, increase credit support to relieve the financing difficulties of private enterprises, and effectively reduce the financing costs of entities.

　　2. Give play to the joint efforts of "several lifts" and enhance policy coordination. In 2018, financial regulatory policies actively cooperated with the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, and strived to achieve the optimal policy mix and the maximum overall effect, so as to protect the smooth operation of the economy. On the one hand, guide financial institutions to help a more active fiscal policy. Cancel the upper limit of the investment ratio of commercial banks underwriting local government bonds to effectively undertake the issuance of local bonds; In accordance with the principle of marketization, increase financial support for the shortcomings in the infrastructure sector. On the other hand, with the multi-objective fine-tuning of monetary policy, through targeted credit supply, the financing difficulties of private and small and micro enterprises will be accurately alleviated to help stabilize growth; Adhere to strict supervision in key areas such as asset management, local debt and real estate credit to help stabilize leverage and prevent risks; Pay close attention to the introduction of supporting rules for the new regulations on asset management to help stabilize expectations.

　　3. The overall supervision has been further improved. In 2018, the idea of financial supervision reflected the characteristics of "unified supervision and overall development". The national institutional reform plan formally established a new regulatory pattern of "one committee, one line, two meetings", and achieved full regulatory coverage while making up the shortcomings. The meeting of the Finance Committee formally put forward the idea of "establishing a bond market with unified management and coordinated development", and the unified pace of credit rating business and market law enforcement mechanism between banks and exchange bond markets accelerated.

　　Third, the macroeconomic outlook

　　(A) China’s macroeconomic outlook in 2019

　　In 2019, under the background of the global economic downturn, there is still great uncertainty about the trend of Sino-US trade friction, which has different degrees of impact on consumption, investment, import and export. Combined with the decline of domestic labor force, the lower savings rate and the downward financial cycle, the overall economic operation will continue the process of economic downturn. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will drop to 6.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points slower than that in 2018, but it is still in the middle and high-speed growth range.

　　In 2019, there are still many factors supporting economic growth. Macroeconomic policies will gradually exert their strength in the direction of steady growth, and the results of structural reforms on the supply side in the early stage will make room for countercyclical adjustment. In the process of urbanization, 10 million jobs are created every year, and the domestic consumption upgrade drives the service demand to grow rapidly, so there is still a lot of room for the development of high-end manufacturing. On the whole, there is still a large room for maneuver in economic operation in 2019, and the final result is likely to be "stable in change", and there will be no stall risk in economic growth.

　　It should be pointed out that with the negative impact of trade friction on the US economy gradually emerging, it is expected that the Trump administration’s enthusiasm for responding to China’s rational problem-solving will be enhanced. Therefore, in 2019, the risk of trade friction between China and the United States is controllable as a whole, and there is little possibility of trade decoupling in the world’s top two economies.

　　From the perspective of "three driving cars", 2019 will be characterized by "investment rebound, stable consumption and negative pull of net exports".

　　1. In terms of investment, the growth rate of investment in three categories of fixed assets will be "two drops and one liter", and the overall rebound will be expected, and the shortcomings of infrastructure construction are expected to play a bottoming role. In 2019, the downward pressure on the economy will increase, and the countercyclical adjustment of policies will be further exerted, which will support infrastructure investment. However, this round of infrastructure rebound will mainly play the role of "bottoming out" rather than "strong stimulus", and the policy direction of strictly controlling local debt risks will not completely turn. Therefore, it is unlikely that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2019 will reproduce the high growth rate in 2008 and 2013, and it is expected to rise to around 10.0%.

　　The growth rate of manufacturing and real estate investment will decline. On the one hand, factors such as the slowdown in corporate profit growth and the impact of Sino-US trade friction uncertainty on investor confidence will slow down the growth rate of manufacturing investment by about 3 percentage points in 2019. On the other hand, due to the cooling mood in the real estate market and the reduction of shed reform scale from 5.8 million to about 4.6 million, if the real estate policy is not significantly relaxed, the growth rate of real estate investment will drop to about 3.0% in 2019.

　　Therefore, it is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will be around 8.0% in 2019, which is about 2 percentage points higher than that in 2018, mainly reflected in the substantial acceleration of infrastructure investment, which accounts for about 27%, while the growth rate of manufacturing investment, which accounts for about 30%, will slow down slightly, and the growth rate of real estate investment, which accounts for nearly 17%, will drop significantly.

　　2. In terms of consumption, the effect of individual tax reduction appears, and the growth rate of commodity consumption is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and remain at around 9.0%. In 2019, the pull-down factors of commodity consumption mainly include the continued negative increase of automobile consumption, especially in the first half of the year; The contraction of the real estate market will also have a negative impact on the consumption of industrial chains such as building decoration, furniture and household appliances; The rapid growth of residents’ short-term loans in 2018 will continue to squeeze out consumption; The uncertainty of Sino-US trade war may also have a certain impact on consumer confidence.

　　At the same time, the favorable tax reduction will increase per capita disposable income, which is expected to support commodity consumption. Considering the factors such as the increase of tax starting point, the reduction of tax rate and special deduction, it is estimated that the tax reduction in 2019 will be about 400 billion yuan, and the total social zero will be about 40 trillion yuan in 2018. Under the assumption that the marginal propensity to consume remains 0.7, the tax reduction is expected to increase the social zero growth rate by 0.7 percentage points in 2019.

　　In addition, the transition from consumption to service will continue in 2019, and service consumption is expected to continue to maintain double-digit rapid growth. In recent years, with the Engel coefficient of urban residents falling below 30% (28.6% in 2017), the consumption structure of residents is shifting from commodities to services, and service consumption accounts for nearly 40% of the total terminal consumption. In 2019, with the opening up of the service industry, the service quality will continue to improve, and the transformation of consumption structure will continue. It is expected that consumption expenditures such as tourism, education, medical care and cultural entertainment will maintain a relatively rapid growth momentum.

　　3. In terms of external demand, the export situation is still grim, which will be a major negative pulling factor for the domestic economy. In terms of exports, in the short term, due to the uncertain prospect of trade war, the forced adjustment of global supply chain and the tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the global economic growth momentum will continue to be weak in 2019, and the economic growth rates of the United States, Europe and Japan will all decline to varying degrees, and the volatility of emerging markets will increase and the growth momentum will slow down. The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, while emphasizing that the balance of global economic growth is declining. In addition, Sino-US trade friction tariff measures have now covered 250 billion US dollars of export commodities, and its lagging influence on China’s exports to the United States (the US market accounts for about 20% of China’s exports) will gradually emerge. Therefore, China will face a weak external demand in 2019.

　　In the medium and long term, at present, China’s exports account for about 13% of the global share, and the growth space is limited. Coupled with the rapid increase in domestic labor costs, China’s consumer goods and investment goods exports will be roughly equal to the growth rate of global trade in the future, and China’s economy is gradually bidding farewell to the era of export-led.

　　4. In terms of price, it is expected that the price trend will show the characteristics of "CPI going up and PPI going down", and the overall inflationary pressure is limited. The key logic behind it is that the economic growth rate will further slow down in 2019, and the output gap does not support a significant increase in inflation under the expectation of weaker aggregate demand.

　　In terms of CPI, it is expected that the annual growth rate of CPI will rise slightly to about 2.5% in 2019, driven by the upward trend of "pig cycle" and higher service prices. The possibility of exceeding 3.0% in individual months is not ruled out, but the overall situation is still in a moderate state, and the trend during the period will be "low before and then high". Among them, in the second half of 2019, the effect of swine fever epidemic on pork prices will be reflected, and inflation expectations may heat up again, and its possible constraints on macroeconomic policies are worthy of attention.

　　In terms of PPI, the cumulative growth rate of PPI may drop to 1.0% in 2019, as domestic capacity reduction and environmental protection and limited production are expected to be further reduced, and the increase in international oil prices will be significantly narrowed. Considering the reasons such as the change of the base number, it will show a trend of "low before and high after", and the possibility of negative growth in the first quarter will not be ruled out. However, in view of the fact that the acceleration of infrastructure construction will support the prices of basic industrial products such as steel and cement, it is still unlikely that the cumulative growth rate of PPI will return to negative growth throughout the year. Finally, considering that the terminal consumption demand is restricted, the transmission effect of PPI to CPI will not be obvious in 2019.

　　5. In terms of exchange rate, the depreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar is less than that in 2018, but it is still in a state of range fluctuation, and the fluctuation range may be similar to that in 2018. Externally, the spread between China and the United States under the influence of monetary policy is an important factor affecting the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in December 2018 has made it clear that the pace of raising interest rates will slow down in 2019. As a result, the monetary policy of China and the United States will gradually end the differentiation trend in 2018 and turn into "loose" in the same direction, so the external pressure of RMB depreciation will be reduced. However, considering that the Fed has just finished raising interest rates, it will immediately become loose, and the People’s Bank of China has clearly released the signal of "marginal easing" since the second half of 2018, so the RMB exchange rate still fluctuates, depending on the interaction of monetary policies between the two countries.

　　Internally, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018 did not mention the exchange rate, which shows that the tolerance of RMB exchange rate flexibility at the policy level has increased, so the internal pressure of RMB depreciation has increased. However, the People’s Bank of China’s work meeting in the fourth quarter put forward that "the RMB exchange rate should be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and a balance should be maintained among interest rates, exchange rates and international payments". This shows that the exchange rate is still the concern of monetary policy, so the People’s Bank of China will still moderately intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary. Therefore, even if the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly in 2019, it will be a very short-term "diving" and will not become the norm.

　　(II) Macroeconomic policy recommendations for 2019

　　In 2019, China’s economic operation changed steadily, and there were worries, internal and external pressures did not decrease, and downside risks still existed. Therefore, the objective situation requires that the macro-policy in 2019 should follow the principle of "sizing up the situation, being cautious and moderate", focus on the main contradictions, give full play to the function of underpinning, further strengthen coordination and cooperation, and strive to achieve the optimal policy combination and maximum overall effect. At the same time, we must have the bottom line thinking, make unconventional policy plans and establish a forward-looking policy reserve.

　　At the same time, we must also see that the long-term positive development trend of China’s economy remains unchanged, and the tough battle against risks is still on the road. In this process, the macro-policy should give consideration to demand management and supply-side reform, and ensure the continuity and stability of the policy at the same time, so as to keep the economy running in a reasonable range for a long time.

　　1. Fiscal policy

　　First, a more active fiscal policy should achieve synergy. We should optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure. In terms of income, we should focus on enhancing the vitality of market micro-players, reducing the burden of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry, improving per capita disposable income and expanding the domestic consumer market by implementing various tax reduction and fee reduction policies. In terms of expenditure, efforts will be made to improve the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds, reduce general expenditures, increase support for key areas, shortcomings and weak links, and prevent the growth rate of investment from continuing to decline.

　　The second is to coordinate the relationship between long-term and short-term goals. In terms of short-term tasks, fiscal policy should give priority to ensuring steady growth. It is expected that with the further increase in the issuance scale of local government special bonds in 2019, various financial funds will be accelerated in place, and attention should be paid to precise efforts and targeted use. For example, it can be more active in the fields of "complementing shortcomings and benefiting people’s livelihood" such as rural revitalization, agriculture, rural areas and micro-enterprises, new infrastructure, ecological protection and narrowing regional gaps. From the long-term goal, we must adhere to the development model that does not rely on excessive debt and excessive leverage. It is necessary to be alert to the excessive growth of local government debt, conduct regular surveys, and strengthen the collection of local government debt data. The issuance of special bonds must strictly correspond to stable and reliable repayment sources; It is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism to match financial supply with local economic development, and avoid the interweaving and spreading of financial and financial risks.

　　The third is to scientifically arrange the issuance of government bonds. At present, China’s government debt leverage is generally controllable, and the debt structure should be adjusted from three aspects: first, appropriately increase the issuance scale of national debt. The higher liquidity and pledge rate of national debt can improve the liquidity management level of financial institutions and form a better policy combination of steady growth with monetary policy. Secondly, strictly control the implicit debt of local governments and increase the scale of special debt issuance. While maintaining steady growth, we should take into account structural adjustment and risk prevention, and the improvement of debt transparency will help reduce the debt cost of local governments and realize a virtuous circle of debt. Finally, revitalize the stock of government bonds and expand the policy space. Support the innovation of government bond repurchase, bond lending and other transactions, and expand its scope of use as high-quality collateral; Continue to expand the investor base of local debt and improve the counter business; Moderately reduce the discount rate in policy operation and improve its efficiency in financial market.

　　2. Monetary policy

　　First, give full play to the role of the monetary policy toolbox. On the one hand, focus on making good use of traditional tools to ensure reasonable and sufficient liquidity, strengthen expected management and stabilize market sentiment. On the other hand, using new tools to realize "directional precision drip irrigation" can change the poor transmission of liquidity in structure and local areas, and reverse the tight credit spiral of economic downturn and financial procyclicality. Make good use of the existing toolbox and optimize the combination to maximize its effectiveness.

　　Second, the exchange rate management should adhere to steady progress. On the one hand, to continue to deepen the two-way opening-up of financial markets and the reform and opening-up in the foreign exchange field, exchange rate management should not only respect the prices determined by market supply and demand, but also encourage institutions to exercise self-discipline, not give up the regulation of other departments, and strengthen countercyclical adjustment to ensure that the foreign exchange market is "open and manageable". On the other hand, actively prevent and resolve the risk of cross-border capital flow, and improve the management framework of "macro-prudential+micro-supervision".

　　3. Financial policy

　　First, we should pay attention to both financial support and risk prevention. In 2019, the economy is still facing downward pressure, which requires that the intensity of financial supervision should be appropriate and the rhythm should be heavy, forming a good pattern of mutual support between financial stability and stable economic operation. On the one hand, we must ensure that financial support is accurate and efficient. In view of the private economy, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of credit transmission, avoid the accumulation of funds in the financial system, continue to clean up unnecessary "channels" and "bridges", shorten the financing chain and reduce the financing cost. For local governments, financial institutions should be guided to provide funds for projects under construction and short-board investment through reasonable credit granting and subscription of special bonds. On the other hand, never relax the string of risk prevention. It is necessary to strengthen inspections and prevent financial institutions from illegally financing local governments. It is necessary to form a joint force in macro-policies, prudent policies, regulatory policies and market management, manage the financial order, and stabilize the expectations of capital and foreign exchange markets.

　　The second is to build an effective financial supervision system to achieve incentive compatibility. We should respect the law of market operation, and we should not simply use administrative orders to excessively intervene in the market, so as to avoid the opposite effect of policies. In particular, we should pay attention to distinguishing policy objectives from specific means to achieve them. For example, when guiding financial institutions to support private and small and micro enterprises, we can allow a certain credit risk premium and enhance their willingness to carry out small and micro credit; The interest income of micro-credit of financial institutions can be appropriately reduced.

　　1. After final verification and accounting, in 2017, the total current GDP was 82,075.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 636.7 billion yuan compared with the initial accounting; At constant prices, it increased by 6.8% compared with 2017 and decreased by 0.1 percentage point compared with the preliminary accounting.

　　2. Unless otherwise specified below, GDP growth rate and related data refer to actual growth rate.

　　3. In 2018, the pulling rate and contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP were 24.3 and 1.6 percentage points higher than those of the secondary industry, respectively.

　　4. Since July 5 and August 23, China and the United States have imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion and $16 billion of imported goods in two batches; Since September 24th, the United States has imposed a 10% tariff on China’s $200 billion products exported to the United States.

　　5. Here refers to the volatility between the highest value of the central parity of the US dollar against RMB 6.967 (November 1st) and the lowest value of RMB 6.2764 (April 2nd).

　　6. Here refers to the cumulative value of national general public finance revenue from the beginning of the year to the current month/national general public finance budget for this year.

　　7. Including education, culture, sports and media, social security and employment, medical and health care and family planning, and housing security, which are directly related to people’s livelihood; And eight categories of expenditures closely related to people’s livelihood, such as science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, water, transportation, commercial services, land and marine meteorology, and grain and oil reserves.

　　8. On August 14th, the Ministry of Finance issued the Opinions on Doing a Good Job in the Issuance of Special Bonds for Local Governments, which explicitly requested to speed up the issuance of special bonds, and took the end of October as the deadline for issuance in principle.

　　9. Increase the scope of MLF qualified collateral to AA+, AA credit bonds and loans for small and micro enterprises.

　　10. From the monetary policy implementation report of the People’s Bank of China in the first quarter of 2018.

　　11. According to the data of China Bond Information Network, as of the end of 2018, the yields of 5-year and 10-year government bonds decreased by 87bp and 65bp； respectively compared with the end of 2017; The yields of 5-year AAA and AA medium-and short-term notes decreased by 131bp and 83bp respectively compared with the end of 2017.

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Bond Magazine. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

Just after the holiday, the whole world reported that the box office of the Spring Festival movie in 2024 reached 8.016 billion yuan, setting a new box office record for the Spring Festival movie. Among them, YOLO is the box office champion temporarily, and Pegasus 2, Boonie Bears: Time Twist and Article 20 rank second to fourth respectively in the box office list of the Spring Festival.

Although the Spring Festival holiday has ended, the spicy strip war has officially begun. (YOLO and Article 20).

The film "Article 20" fell for four days in a row, and the attendance rate exceeded other films for three consecutive days, winning the one-day championship. In this regard, although the box office is leading at present, it is obvious that Jia Ling is in a hurry, and he has started to keep pushing, trying his best, one by one, all of which are big moves. According to these big moves, we can also see that Jia Ling’s ferocity towards himself in the past year has made people admire him more and more.

Compare before and after and be sure that you can succeed.

YOLO was shown in the film for a few days, and there were fresh materials. The crew released the latest MV of "It’s all in time", a hot transmutation song sung by Jia Ling. In the video, Jia Ling is wearing a yellow evening dress and has long hair. The special effects also design two Jia Ling duets from the past and now. The contrast is very shocking. One is Jia Ling, who is hunched over and fat to the end, and the other is Jia Ling, who is surprisingly thin and tall and straight, and doesn’t look like a person at all. Such a radical change makes people feel incredible. As we all know, the best thing is that when Jia Ling first sang this song, she knew that she could make it. She not only dared to conceive the difference before and after, but also achieved the goal that ordinary people could not achieve.

There is another promotional video, that is, Li Xueqin P picture. The cooperation between the two of them should be that during the filming, the first half of the video was made, and Li Xueqin was sitting there, or the chubby Jia Ling disliked her slow speed. As soon as the next shot is switched, this picture of P is already another version of Jia Ling. To tell a joke, Jia Ling, who has lost weight, dare not look like this.

In a word, both videos were shot by Jia Ling before, and finally produced the bursting effect through post-editing. In other words, as early as a year ago, Jia Ling knew what it was like a year later and designed a long layout, which made people think more and more terrible.

Doing a good job in product marketing is not afraid of being accused.

At this stage, people don’t resent Jia Ling’s use of so many marketing methods, because the content of YOLO itself is relatively solid.

Because, in fact, Jia Ling’s thin appearance is not shown too much in the film, but more about a process, and even the role played by Jia Ling has not achieved success in the secular sense in the film. What is more subtle is that this film, from the perspective of female directors, shows the diversity of female actors and women in modern life, finds the right topic and makes clear the theme of the film around the core of women. That is to say, during the filming period, Jia Ling made the products solid with his heart, and then he dared to make bold marketing in the later period, fearing that he would be overused by marketing.

Just imagine, if Jia Ling just blindly takes the matter of losing weight as a stunt, there must be many other negative voices. Once the film is very bad, for Jia Ling, the box office of the film is uncertain, which will ruin her future reputation, but it will not be worth the candle.

Drive the industry to radiate hot discussion in the whole society.

Because it happens that during the Chinese New Year, all of Chinese eats and drinks at home. However, most people, while tasting delicious food in their mouths, are under great pressure and always want to go back to the gym to lose weight after the Spring Festival. And this time, Jia Ling’s whole body tendon meat undoubtedly gave everyone a very good kidney hormone. Since Jia Ling can do it, why can’t we! Everyone hopes to be like Jia Ling and change his body after the year. Then, if there is demand, there will be capital to follow the wind. Look at the circle of friends, whether they are engaged in beauty industry or fitness yoga, they all take Jia Ling as a gimmick. Ordinary people casually brush their circle of friends with Jia Ling. No matter what the film is about, Jia Ling has the help of the whole world to promote it.

"How to build a good car for users?" This problem runs through the development of Geely all the time, and has a profound impact on Geely’s strategic layout and product innovation.

On December 6th, Geely Automobile held a 7 # listing conference in Taizhou, Zhejiang. Taizhou is the place where Geely Automobile started, so during the media interview after the listing conference, Yan Jiayu, CEO of Geely Automobile Group, began to talk to the media about Geely Automobile’s concept of making cars.

Gan Jiayue said: Since the first car rolled off the assembly line on August 8, 1998, Geely has a 27-year history of building cars, and up to now it has accumulated 16 million users, ranking first in the number of independent brands in China. However, Geely Automobile’s concept of building a car remains unchanged, that is, to build a good car for users and ordinary people.

Constant values: building a good car for the people

Geely’s "unchanged" can be summed up as a simple and profound mission: "building a good car for the people." This concept has been established since the establishment of Geely, and has been accompanied by the development of the enterprise.

Yan Jiayue mentioned that Geely’s initial goal was to "build a car that ordinary people can afford". With the gradual development of the company, this goal was further deepened into "building a good car that ordinary people can afford" and now "building the safest, most energy-saving and most intelligent new energy vehicle". What remains unchanged is that Geely has never forgotten its original intention, that is, to meet the needs of mass consumers through cost-effective products.

Take Galaxy as an example. The main mission of Galaxy is to be a "high-value" new energy product. Gan Jiayu explained: High value means leading from technology, leading from quality and leading from the value of products, which is what Geely often talks about internally.

This "high-value" car-making concept also ensures Geely’s success. In 2024, the competition in China’s automobile market is becoming increasingly fierce, and many automobile companies have experienced double sales and profits, while Geely stands out in the market with its excellent "price-to-product ratio" and good user experience. Whether it is listed in August or Geely listed in October, it has become a market explosion.

Changing factors: technological progress and product innovation

Although Geely has always adhered to the concept of "building a good car for ordinary people", with the rapid development of the automobile industry, especially the rapid progress of intelligent and new energy technologies, Geely Automobile should continue to maintain the advantage of "price ratio" of its products, or return to the market and understand what products users need from the market perspective. Take the Milky Way as an example, which is manifested in the following aspects.

The first is the core technology. Yan Jiayu believes that if the technology is not continuously leading, the product will not be recognized by the market.

According to the introduction, in recent years, Geely Automobile has practiced the strategy of "one network and three systems" in technology, that is, an "intelligent Geely technology ecological network" and three systems composed of "intelligent energy, intelligent manufacturing and intelligent services".

Gan Jiayu believes that in the "one network and three systems", the most important thing for Galaxy is the intelligent energy system. To this end, Geely has built a Aegis short knife battery and an 11-in-1 channel platform. This system has ensured the best endurance achievement rate and safety of the same level for Geely Galaxy, and the power consumption and energy consumption of the products have also been well optimized, thus ensuring that the products get higher customer satisfaction.

Secondly, in terms of intelligence, Geely has accelerated the upgrading of intelligent manufacturing by implementing the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy.

Yan Jiayue mentioned that from 2021 to now, Geely has continuously strengthened its independent research and development capabilities, from the chip to the self-research of the operating system, which is constantly breaking down technical barriers and bringing better driving experience to consumers.

Take the Flyme Auto system as an example. This system is an AI intelligent system jointly developed by Geely and Meizu, which can optimize the intelligent operation in the car in real time according to the needs of users. This technology not only improves the operating experience in the car, but also helps the vehicle to achieve better performance in fuel consumption through the application of AI agents. For example, Starship 7 has better fuel consumption performance than many similar hybrid vehicles with the help of AI agents.

Such a technological breakthrough not only makes Geely stand out in the market, but also creates a leading technical image for the brand.

In addition, Geely has spared no effort in quality control. Gan Jiayu emphasized that "quality is the bottom line, the lifeline and the red line of Geely". While improving product technology, Geely always insists on maintaining high standards in quality management. This strict quality control not only ensures the safety and durability of vehicles, but also makes consumers feel more at ease when choosing Geely brand.

Balance between Change and Invariance: User Experience First

Geely’s success lies not only in technological breakthroughs, but also in how to transform these technologies into product values that users can actually feel.

Yan Jiayue emphasized that Geely does not need to show off its skills, but brings consumers a more real experience through practical technology. This "user-centered" design concept runs through every model of Geely, especially in the field of new energy vehicles, and Galaxy series is the concrete embodiment of this concept.

As a pure electric SUV, Yinhe E5 has been widely welcomed for its excellent intelligent system and extreme driving experience. Through the all-round fuel consumption optimization of AI agent, Galaxy Starship 7 achieved the best fuel consumption performance among similar new energy vehicles, which not only reduced the use cost of the owner, but also improved the overall driving experience. In addition, the addition of Flyme Auto system not only improves the convenience of the owner’s operation in the car, but also makes the intelligent interaction in the car more humanized, thus providing users with a higher value experience.

Conclusion: Geely’s "change" and "unchanged" are the core of its continuous success. On the basis of adhering to the initial goal of "building a good car for the common people", Geely has gradually realized the transformation from a China brand to a global brand through technological innovation, quality improvement and product experience optimization. It can be predicted that Geely in the future will continue to promote the continuous progress of the automobile industry with the initial intention of "building a good car for users" and achieve more high-value products with international competitiveness.

I’ll bring this one to you today. Let’s take a look at its performance.

First of all, from the appearance, the design of Changan Auchan Z6 front is very simple and fashionable, and looks more fashionable and dynamic. Combined with dynamic headlights, the visual effect is good. The car is equipped with LED daytime running lights, automatic opening and closing, adaptive far and near light, delayed closing and so on. Come to the side of the car, the car body size is 4699MM*1890MM*1660MM, the car uses rounded lines, and the side circumference gives people a very simple feeling. With large-sized thick-walled tires, it gives people a very fashionable and dynamic feeling. Looking back, the rear of the car looks avant-garde, and the taillights give people a very solid feeling. Coupled with the unique exhaust pipe, the shape is more fashionable.

Sitting in the car, the interior design of Changan Auchan Z6 looks more stable and functional. The steering wheel of the car is eye-catching, made of leather, and the shape is very fighting. Let’s take a look at the central control panel with 12.3-inch touch-sensitive LCD, which makes the interior style impressive and the overall design of the central control panel is very good. Let Xiaobian introduce the dashboard and seats. The dashboard design is remarkable and looks more spiritual. The car adopts leather-like seats, equipped with functions such as electric adjustment with memory in the auxiliary seat, electric adjustment with memory in the seat, and seat proportion tilting, which is basically enough for daily use.

Changan Auchan Z6 is matched with an automatic manual transmission (AT) gearbox, with a maximum power of 171KW and a maximum torque of 390N.m, with good power performance.

In addition, the car is equipped with car networking, driving mode selection, remote control key, Bluetooth key, rear wiper, interior atmosphere light and other configurations.

The SUV has an atmospheric appearance, good spatial performance and high cost performance. I wonder if you are interested in it. Today, you can go to the 4S shop to experience this car.

　　The long-term positive trend of China’s economy has not changed and cannot be changed. It is constantly shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and the old and new kinetic energy are continuously converted. The short-term economic operation may fluctuate and be unstable in stages, but in the whole development process, it will have ten trend changes, which determines the potential and future prospects of China’s long-term economic development.

　　First, the final consumption expenditure growth has become the first driving force for economic growth.

　　From 2014 to 2018, according to the demand expenditure method, among the three major demand growth: fixed capital formation, final consumption expenditure and net export of goods and services, the final consumption expenditure growth has become the first driving force for China’s economic growth for five consecutive years.

　　Moreover, the popular and wave-free consumption of some consumer goods is turning to the pursuit of high-quality, differentiated and diversified selective consumption. In 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 38.1 trillion yuan, up 9.0% over the previous year. Although the growth rate slowed down by 1.2 percentage points over the previous year, the contribution rate of the overall final consumption growth (including service consumption) to economic growth was 76.2%, up 18.6 percentage points over the previous year.

　　Second, the consumption structure is advanced: the proportion of service consumption in household consumption is rising.

　　In recent years, the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents in China has dropped significantly. In 2017, food consumption expenditure only accounted for about 28% of the total expenditure of urban residents, and only accounted for about 32% of the total expenditure of rural residents. The growth of consumption expenditure has increasingly turned to other consumption fields.

　　Compared with commodity consumption, service consumption has maintained a faster growth. Tourism, culture, sports, old-age care and domestic service consumption are very active. According to the Ministry of Commerce, service consumption accounted for 49.2% of household consumption in 2017, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over 2012. In 2018, the proportion of service consumption reached 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous year, which also explained the decline in the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2018. Internationally, in 2018, the proportion of service consumption in the United States reached 68.9%, and other developed countries were 59.4% in Japan, 58% in Britain, 54% in France and 52% in Germany. China accounts for 49.5%, which is close to German and other continental European countries.

　　Third, production and consumption upgrading: production inputs are scientific and digital.

　　In 2018, the expenditure on national research and experimental development (R&D) increased by 11.6% over the previous year, and the ratio to GDP was 2.18%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points over the previous year. At the same time, data becomes a new factor of production and is consumed. In the era of digital economy, the role of data in economic activities is becoming more and more important. It can not only help people to better organize and plan production and operation, but also make effective judgments and predictions. Moreover, it becomes a direct input factor in artificial intelligent manufacturing. In many fields of production and management, it has been regarded as a new factor of production. As early as October 9, 2016, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee had a collective study on the implementation of the strategy of strengthening the country through the Internet. On December 8, 2017, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee once again conducted collective study on "Implementing the National Big Data Strategy", and proposed "Building a digital economy with data as the key element", which made it clear that data is a production factor. The amount of data generated and stored in the world has increased dramatically, and it is estimated that it will reach 44 trillion GB by 2020. The amount of data generated in China will account for nearly 20% of the total global data. As of 2017, the United States has 44% of the world’s large data centers, and the number of large data centers in China is second only to the United States. In the next few years, with the completion of a number of innovation platforms in the field of big data, 13 national big data laboratories will have their own achievements in different fields, providing support and services for related technological innovations in the field of big data.

　　Fourth, the digital economy has become a new industry and opened up new fields in the network market.

　　At present, applications based on new technologies such as Internet, Internet of Things, big data and cloud computing are increasingly entering social production and exchange, resulting in digital media, e-commerce and e-financial services, and many new products, industries and formats. The Internet is changing the production and lifestyle of human beings. According to the World Internet Report 2017, 22% of global GDP is closely related to the digital economy. In 2016, the total scale of China’s digital economy reached 22.58 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world, accounting for 30.3% of China’s GDP. According to the World Internet Report 2018, by 2018, the global Internet users had reached 3.6 billion, more than half of the global population. The number of users in cmnet was 753 million, an increase of 8% over the previous year in 2017, and the use of mobile data increased by 162% year-on-year. In the China market, online entertainment (long and short videos and mobile games), new retail and mobile payment have all made further development, and China is becoming a global Internet giant center.

　　The opening of new fields of digital economy and network market has posed new challenges to modern economics and statistics. The concept of total retail sales of social consumer goods provided in short-term economic operation statistics can no longer reflect the whole picture of household consumption. Data input factors have not yet entered the PPI price index statistics; The concept of fixed capital formation or fixed assets investment can no longer accommodate the investment in production and production tools in the network field; The direct exchange value and consumption value of online market also failed to enter the current statistical system; The concept of "gross domestic product" in modern economics can no longer accommodate and cover the economic activities of the whole society and the creation of total social output in the new era. Paying too much attention to the increase or decrease of 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point of GDP will make us fall into the misunderstanding of observing the economic situation.

　　In October, 2016, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed that it is necessary to increase investment, strengthen the construction of information infrastructure, promote the deep integration of the Internet and the real economy, speed up the digitalization and intelligentization of traditional industries, make the digital economy bigger and stronger, and expand new space for economic development. In March 2017, the "Government Work Report" first proposed to accelerate the development of the digital economy. In October of the same year, the digital economy was written into the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Developing digital economy has become a national strategy. At the China International Import Expo on November 5, 2018 and the APEC meeting on November 18, the Chairman of the Supreme Leader emphasized that all countries should seize the opportunities brought by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation and strengthen cooperation in frontier fields such as digital economy, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology to jointly create new technologies, new industries, new formats and new models. Digital economy is the future development direction of Asia-Pacific and even the world.

　　Five, high-end manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing change the industrial economic structure.

　　In 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Three-year Action Plan for Enhancing the Core Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry (2018-2020)", and organized and implemented special actions for the industrialization of key technologies in key areas such as rail transit equipment, high-end ship and ocean engineering equipment, intelligent robots, smart cars, modern agricultural machinery, high-end medical devices and medicines, new materials, manufacturing intelligence, and major technical equipment.

　　In recent years, the new kinetic energy of manufacturing industry has been gradually enhanced. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry represented by high-speed rail and large aircraft, and the high-tech industry represented by information technology have maintained a rapid growth trend. Wind data shows that in 2018, the added value of high-tech industries, equipment manufacturing industries and strategic emerging industries increased by 11.8%, 8.3% and 8.8% respectively, and the growth rate was faster than that of industrial output above designated size. The new kinetic energy promotes the optimization of the kinetic energy structure of the traditional economy. In 2018, the proportion of high-tech manufacturing industry in industries above designated size reached 14.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year; Investment in high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 16.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.6 percentage points higher than that of all manufacturing investment.

　　At the same time, intelligent manufacturing has become a new trend of high-quality development of industrial economy. In July 2017, the State Council officially issued the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan"; In November 2018, the "Work Plan for Revealing the Key Tasks of New Generation Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed that by 2020, China will reach or approach the international advanced level in key technologies, computing power, communication capabilities, and standards related to vehicle intelligent platforms. In 2019, the "Government Work Report" proposed "smart+"; On March 19, 2019, the seventh meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform reviewed and approved the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Deep Integration of Artificial Intelligence and the Real Economy, and proposed to build an intelligent economic form that is data-driven, man-machine collaboration, cross-border integration and sharing. This means that the pace of promoting artificial intelligence to empower and upgrade traditional industries in China has been greatly accelerated. It can be predicted that artificial "intelligence+"will become an important direction of manufacturing development in the future, and will also become a new kinetic energy engine to accelerate the development of emerging industries.

　　The application exploration of artificial intelligence in manufacturing industry is forming four typical application modes. One is to improve manufacturing efficiency, the other is to optimize production technology, the third is to optimize supply chain management efficiency, and the fourth is to improve after-sales operation and maintenance value. With the deepening of technology application, the coupling of capital investment is also increasingly strengthened. Driven by technological breakthroughs and application requirements, artificial intelligence technology has stepped out of the laboratory, accelerated its penetration into various fields of the industry, and greatly improved its industrialization level. In this process, capital has played an important role as an accelerator of industrial development. In the first half of 2018 alone, the global financing scale in the field of artificial intelligence reached 43.5 billion US dollars, of which the investment scale in China reached 31.7 billion US dollars, accounting for more than 70% of the world. At the same time, artificial intelligence has been widely used in intelligent robots, drones, finance, medical care, security, autonomous driving, search, education and other fields. Among them, autonomous driving is one of the most promising landing areas in the field of artificial intelligence. Traditional domestic automobile companies such as FAW, SAIC, BAIC, Chang ‘an and Dongfeng have invested heavily in intelligent and autonomous driving.

　　Six, the supply of some public goods has become a new service industry.

　　The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the main contradiction in our society has been transformed into the contradiction between the people’s growing need for a better life and the unbalanced development. People’s basic needs for food, clothing, housing and transportation have changed to more needs for fairness, environment and various public products and services.

　　In cities, insufficient development is the main problem. Mainly for the lack of public products and public services, not excellent. The so-called public goods generally fall into two categories. The first category is transportation, urban infrastructure, water, electricity and heat; The second category is science, education, culture, health and sports insurance (insurance). These products are in short supply or poor quality, so they cannot meet everyone’s needs for a better life. In the case that the supply of these products and services depends entirely on government input, it can only lead to insufficiency or inferiority. Therefore, market mechanism and competition mechanism should also be introduced into the supply of some public goods. The supply of public goods and public services should give consumers choices, and the pricing of public goods should be flexible, so as to attract more social capital into the production and supply of public goods and form new industries. In the primary stage of socialism, public goods have different degrees of welfare and different degrees of commodity, so they should be properly classified, treated differently, specifically implemented and priced differently to attract social capital investment and alleviate the shortage of government investment.

　　For example, in the fields of education and medical care, the welfare should be guaranteed by the government, and the commodity price should be guided by the government to regulate the market. The health industry is an emerging industry that integrates medical treatment, rehabilitation, old-age care, leisure and tourism. In western developed countries, the health industry is the second largest industry after the financial industry. In 2017, the health industry in the United States accounted for 17% of GDP. China is stepping into an aging society, the proportion of middle-income groups in social strata is rising, and the demand for health is growing. It is necessary to combine the supply of public services such as medical care and rehabilitation with the supply of competitive services such as leisure and tourism, allocate resources through market mechanisms, and create supply. Of course, the special industry formed by the supply of some public goods should not take profit as the sole purpose, and it has the characteristics of inclusiveness, but it also needs to solve the problems of investment return and commercial interests of enterprise development.

　　Seven, economic agglomeration in the Bay Area and urban agglomeration to form the scale effect of resource allocation.

　　China’s economy will gather in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area, Shanghai and Yangtze River Delta Bay Area, Beijing and Tianjin and Bohai Bay Area, and become the growth pole of China’s economy. By 2016, the population, land area and port container throughput of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area ranked first among the four Greater Bay Area cities in the world, with a total GDP of 1.38 trillion US dollars, second only to new york Bay Area. In North China, the sub-centers of xiong’an new area and Beijing will also be the signs of regional economic agglomeration. Master Plan of xiong’an new area, Hebei (2018— 2035) closely follows xiong’an new area’s strategic positioning, and proposes to orderly undertake the function relief of Beijing’s non-capital, optimize the pattern of land space development and protection, create a beautiful ecological environment, promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas, shape the features of the new district, create a livable and business-friendly environment, build a modern comprehensive transportation system, build a green and low-carbon city, build a world-class innovative city, and create a city of digital intelligence. The construction of xiong’an new area has attracted international attention. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun commented that the construction of a new city "xiong’an new area" is a grand plan put forward by China in 2017 as a "Millennium Plan". It will build a smart city using a new generation of cutting-edge technologies, and the infrastructure construction will be completed by 2022. It is estimated that the population of the new district will exceed 2 million in the future. The estimated total investment is 2 trillion yuan.

　　With the construction of a number of central cities, urban agglomerations around central cities will rise, thus further accelerating the agglomeration effect of China’s economy and the scale effect of resource allocation.

　　Eight, the new urban-rural and regional relations shape a new division of labor and expand new exchanges.

　　The opposition between industrial production and agricultural production, and the opposition between physical and chemical economy and bio-economy were once the basic contents of traditional urban-rural exchange and urban-rural relations. Now and in the future, there will be subversive changes, and the development trend will be: big cities and economic core areas will focus on intelligent services (scientific research and development design, etc.), data and information, digital economy and public goods production; Small and medium-sized cities are dominated by industrial physical and chemical economy and labor service economy; Rural areas are dominated by bio-economy and eco-economy, forming a new exchange relationship among them. This not only provides a wider employment space for various labor factors, but also forms a more detailed and exquisite professional division of labor. The content of urban-rural and regional exchange relations is more diverse and there is more room for development.

　　At the same time, the development of urban rail transit provides greater convenience for the division of labor and cooperation between cities, and the phenomenon of "commuting" between cities is becoming more and more frequent, which means that the tradeability of service labor is further enhanced and the service trade is further expanded, and at the same time, it creates new foundations and conditions for the transformation and upgrading of service industry.

　　Nine, new opportunities for rural revitalization.

　　The strategy of rural revitalization put forward by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is to give priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, establish and improve the system, mechanism and policy system of urban-rural integration development in accordance with the general requirements of industrial prosperity, ecological livability, rural civilization, effective governance and affluent life, and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. This will become the general grasp of the work of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era. According to this strategy, agriculture must first become a human capital-intensive industry. It is necessary to professionalize agricultural management and cultivate a modern new peasant team. Encourage new farmers to actively participate in the construction of cooperation, credit and mutual aid organizations, so as to become modern and efficient commodity agricultural laborers and agricultural producers and operators. Secondly, we should support the popularization of agricultural scientific research and build a stable scientific and technological support system; Scientific research support and personnel training are the foundation of modern agriculture and an important way to solve the bottleneck constraint of resource elements, which need to be accumulated for a long time. Third, rural renovation is an important measure to promote rural revitalization. With the development of urbanization, the structure, layout and function of rural land use will change dramatically. It is difficult to adapt to this rapid change by relying solely on the land market, and the government needs to intervene in the form of law, planning and construction projects. China’s rural renovation should be given more complete functions as an important platform for implementing the rural revitalization strategy, and the combination of land renovation with agricultural scale management, rural tourism, infrastructure construction, landscape and environmental protection should be promoted. Fourth, to be a "new node" for small and medium-sized towns. To create "Living in the countryside and working in cities and towns "has promoted the development of rural areas." In the future, we should create conditions for the development of county towns and small towns in infrastructure investment, medical and educational resources layout and land index distribution. Work on the node of small cities and towns. Fifth, build beautiful countryside and develop ecological economy. Rural revitalization is not the revitalization of every village. In some natural villages, there has been a phenomenon of natural disappearance of young and strong labor force and large-scale land abandonment. We should promote their disappearance naturally, reduce the ratio of administrative villages to natural villages, and make land resources and construction funds more rationally allocated. On this basis, we will implement "village renewal" to improve the quality of rural life and build beautiful countryside. Implement rural construction marked by "toilet revolution" to improve the quality of livable life in rural areas. Through the implementation of village renewal projects, these villages will form a distinctive style and a pleasant ecological living environment, and promote the development of ecological economy.

　　X. China is more closely linked with the open world economy.

　　In the face of trade protectionism and the US trade war, China’s policy of opening to the outside world has not changed, and the steps of opening to the outside world have become more solid. China’s basic strategy to meet the challenge is to develop itself and overcome trade protectionism in building an open world economy. China has set up 12 free trade pilot zones, implemented more open trade and investment facilitation measures, and further expanded the opening of service trade. At the same time, it has explored new paths for deepening reform in the whole country, copied and popularized new experiences, and gathered new common interests with other countries in the world, which will become a new hub for China to connect with the open world economy.

　　In 2018, China ranked first in world trade in goods and second in service. Since 2013, the foreign investment of China enterprises has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, and it has stabilized at about 120 billion US dollars in 2018, and the stock of overseas investment has reached about 1,929.5 billion US dollars. China has become the third largest economy in the world with foreign investment, and it is the second largest economy if China and Hongkong are included. China’s economic ties with the world are hard to isolate. It is wishful thinking for American protectionist forces to try to decouple China’s economy from the world economy.

　　Since 2013, China has made continuous progress in jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative with relevant countries. In 2017, it implemented new investment in 57 countries along the route, with an investment of US$ 20.17 billion, up 31.5% year-on-year, accounting for 12.7% of foreign investment, up nearly 5 percentage points from the previous year. In 2018, new non-financial investment in countries along the route reached US$ 15.64 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year, and the proportion of foreign investment further rose to 12.8%. By the end of 2018, China-Europe trains had accumulated more than 13,000 trains, and the return rate increased by nearly 20 percentage points, reaching 49 cities in 15 countries abroad; 387 civil aviation routes reach 33 countries along the route. Financial cooperation continued to strengthen, with 11 Chinese banks setting up 71 first-level institutions in 27 countries along the route. Carry out joint financing cooperation with multilateral development banks such as African Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. RMB clearing arrangements have been established in seven countries and regions along the route, and the RMB cross-border payment system covers 41 countries and regions along the route. People’s hearts are also deepening. Cultural cooperation agreements have been signed with more than 60 countries along the route, more than 300 cultural exchange implementation plans have been determined, 17 overseas China cultural centers have been built in countries along the route, and 85 overseas educational institutions and projects have been held in countries along the route. In deepening cooperation, we have continuously reached a new consensus on international economic and trade rules and reached 17 free trade agreements with 25 countries and regions.Although no bilateral investment agreement has been reached with the European Union, relevant bilateral investment agreements have been signed separately with many European countries.

　　In the future, China will further build and improve the "One Belt, One Road" information platform for foreign investment, and reduce the asymmetry of foreign investment information of enterprises. Reasonably guide the investment direction of enterprises in the Belt and Road Initiative, promote the transfer of superior production capacity to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, improve the investment layout of enterprises in key industries and regions of the Belt and Road Initiative, improve the quality of investment in the Belt and Road Initiative, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results with the host country.

　　(The author of this article is Pei Changhong, a member of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a professor at China Academy of Social Sciences. Source: Economic Daily)