Kuaiyin & Sanshan invites you to watch "X-Men" on the Dragon Boat Festival, and everyone will eat zongzi together.

Fast silver and Fung Wong-Nui.

    1905 movie network news "What are you going to do during the Dragon Boat Festival? Go out to play? The weather is hot and there are many scenic spots. I have a good suggestion. It is better to invite friends and family to the cinema! "

    This suggestion was given to you by "cute" fast silver evan peters and Fung Wong-Nui "three idiots" sophie turner. In the special video of Dragon Boat Festival released by the film today, Kuaiyin and Fung Wong-Nui are still very funny. They take China’s zongzi and wish everyone a happy Dragon Boat Festival. Kuaiyin also asks, "Is this edible? I want to bring one for my dad Wan Ciwang! " Fung Wong-Nui also quickly said, "Then I’ll bring one for Professor X."

    X-Men: Apocalypse, a Hollywood superhero blockbuster, has been released all over the country. This movie is the final chapter of the prequel trilogy, and it is well received all over the world.

 

Sophie turner plays Fung Wong-Nui in the X-Men.

Fast silver looks up

   The story of X-Men: Apocalypse took place in the 1980s, that is, the last decade. In 1983, Apocalypse, the first mutant in history, woke up in Egypt. He wanted to rule and change the world, so there was the mutant war.

    Many fans said that this is probably the X-Men movie that is most loyal to comics. The background of these mutants, such as Storm, Nightcrawler, Angel, Psylocke, Laser Eye, etc., is very clear. It doesn’t look like an ending with pure fighting, but like the beginning of a movie series, and it seems that there is a bigger story being built. In the film, Fung Wong-Nui first meets the laser eye and Wolverine, and Wan Ciwang is still an important role, explaining what happened to Wan Ciwang 10 years after X-Men: Days of Future Past, and why he became one of the four knights who helped the apocalypse. What story will happen between him and his son, Kuaiyin, and "old friend" Professor X becomes more suspenseful.

Fung Wong-Nui, Laser Eye and Nightcrawler

Quick silver saves the magic girl

 

       Many viewers said that they cried, not only because the film was wonderful, but also because this series was accompanied by their own experiences. The friendship between Professor X and Wan Ciwang in the film was particularly strong. Even if they were not together and had different positions, they still understood each other’s perspectives.

      The theme of the X-Men series is how to face discrimination and oppression. Professor X, Wan Ciwang, Magic Woman and the Apocalypse of this episode are all looking for their own beliefs and fighting for them. Therefore, every character in this series of movies has supporters.

       Dragon Boat Festival is one of the most important traditional festivals in China. Let’s go to the cinema to watch X-Men: Apocalypse, which is being shown, and have a pleasant holiday.

Experts’ Interpretation of Resolution Technology Bottleneck and Multiple Exposure Potential of 65 nm mask aligner

Experts interpret the resolution of 65 nm mask aligner.

Recently, the discussion about "65nm mask aligner" on the Internet is quite enthusiastic, but many comments lack authoritative basis, which leads to many people’s increasingly vague understanding of this technical concept. Some people explain the resolution of 65 nm mask aligner only by "8 nm alignment accuracy", and this simplified treatment deepens the confusion. Fortunately, with the promotion of popular science, the public has gradually reached a consensus: the prototype of the ArF light source mask aligner with 65 nm resolution and 8 nm overlay accuracy is about "XT:1460K" model introduced by ASML Company 20 years ago.

The next question is, can this mask aligner reach a higher level of chip manufacturing node with the help of multiple exposure technology? Looking back on an article published by IEEE in 2008, this paper discusses the challenge of 193 nm mask aligner in alignment accuracy control, and we briefly summarize it by analyzing the data in this paper.

In this paper, a series of mask aligner in ASML are listed, which evolved from dry type (such as 870G to 1400E) to the first generation submerged type (such as 1700Fi and 1900Gi), and their resolution and alignment accuracy changes are shown. In the chart, the blue line at the top represents the mask aligner resolution, which is almost equivalent to the node name of the chip in the era of dry lithography. Obviously, ASML’s XT:1400E dry ArF mask aligner matches the standards of 65nm resolution and 8nm alignment accuracy.

The orange line shows the maximum allowable deviation of registration accuracy at a certain resolution, for example, at a resolution of 65 nm, the allowable deviation is 11 nm. Therefore, the alignment accuracy of 8 nm completely meets the process standard of 65 nm. It is worth noting that before the 65 nm node, its importance has not been paid enough attention because of the large margin of overlay accuracy. When it reaches 65 nm, as dry lithography approaches the limit, the surplus space of alignment accuracy almost disappears.

It should be emphasized that the above registration accuracy standard is based on a single exposure.

In fact, ASML skipped the 65nm mask aligner and directly entered the immersion technology for the mass production of 32nm and 28nm chips. However, historical data show that the company has explored the use of a 65nm dry mask aligner with a numerical aperture of 0.93 to achieve a resolution of 40nm through double exposure technology, which was documented in the IEEE conference in 2006.

It is pointed out that for the 65nm mask aligner with a numerical aperture of 0.93, the registration accuracy required by a single exposure is 8nm, and it is required to be further improved to 5.6nm in the double exposure mode. This means that even the 8 nm alignment accuracy is not enough in the face of the demand of double exposure to 40 nm resolution. Moreover, 40 nm is only the level of a single exposure of immersion mask aligner.

According to the analysis of available historical data, mask aligner with 65nm resolution and 8nm alignment accuracy is mainly suitable for the chip manufacturing process from 65nm to 55nm, and cannot effectively enter the finer manufacturing fields such as 32nm and 28nm through double exposure technology.

Chinese medicine expert: immunity is adjusted, not supplemented. Balance is very important.

  Cctv newsOn April 23rd, the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism held a press conference to introduce the popularization of scientific knowledge of prevention and control in COVID-19 and answer questions from reporters.

 

  The reporter asked, Chinese medicine says that "healthy qi should be kept inside, and evil should not be done". For ordinary people, what methods can Chinese medicine provide to strengthen healthy qi and improve immunity in daily life?

  Qi Wensheng, chief physician of Guang ‘anmen Hospital of Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine, said that Chinese medicine believes that immunity is transferred out, not supplemented. If you get angry, you need to purge fire, and if you have deficiency, you can supplement it. Only when the yin and yang are balanced is the state of healthy qi. The balance between yin and yang is very important.

  How to keep the balance of yin and yang, and how to keep healthy qi inside? Traditional Chinese medicine believes that there are several aspects: first, to adapt to the climate change of the four seasons, people’s daily life and life should be adapted to the four seasons, aerobic exercise should be properly carried out, adequate sleep should be guaranteed, and clothes should be increased or decreased in time.

  The second is to adjust emotions. Because the fluctuation and change of mental state will affect immunity, we should maintain a mental balance at ordinary times to avoid the influence of negative emotions such as anxiety and tension.

  The third is to control diet. It doesn’t mean to eat more and eat less, and the diet should be balanced and not partial eclipse, especially when you catch a cold in summer or winter, you should pay attention to the light and nutritious diet.

  The fourth is to do some drug conditioning appropriately. If you still feel uncomfortable after the above-mentioned daily conditioning, such as getting angry, dry or unsmooth stool, poor sleep, and no spirit, you can adjust it with Chinese medicine.

China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: Popularize financial knowledge for young consumers. Banking and insurance institutions may not force the elderly to use bank cards.

  CCTV News:Yesterday (August 27th), at the media briefing of "Financial Knowledge Popularization Month" in 2021, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission focused on the popularization of financial knowledge such as reasonable borrowing and rational consumption for young consumers such as teenagers and school students. At the same time, focus on popularizing the concept of rational investment for the elderly, improve their anti-fraud awareness and self-protection ability, and require that banking and insurance institutions should not force the elderly to use bank cards, and should not force and violate regulations to handle business through self-service smart devices instead of the elderly.

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor’s urgent reminder

  Recently, a news that "a woman was infected with COVID-19’s liver failure caused by taking drugs indiscriminately" caused a wide discussion.

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

  According to media reports, a 40-year-old woman in Pingdingshan, Henan Province, panicked after being infected with COVID-19, and took medicine as soon as she had symptoms of fever. As a result, she blindly took medicine to reduce her fever because she did not follow the doctor’s advice, resulting in yellow skin and liver failure, and was urgently transferred to the ICU of Zhengzhou No.1 Hospital for rescue.

  On December 16th, Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University published a popular science article, in which it was pointed out that many people had misunderstandings about cold medication, and scientific medication guidance was urgently needed to help people use drugs rationally. What are the precautions for home treatment? Look at the key points ↓↓↓↓

  Looking at a basket of "cold medicine", how to choose?

  Cold medicine is a general term, which can be roughly divided into the following categories for ease of understanding:

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

  Knowing that cold medicines are divided into several categories, let’s "sit in the right place" the ingredients in the common cold medicine instructions:

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

  Cold medicine can’t kill the virus.

  Cold medicine can only relieve all kinds of uncomfortable symptoms when catching a cold and make people feel better, which is what we usually call "symptomatic treatment".

  If the symptoms are mild, you don’t have to take cold medicine.

  "Eating is better than not eating" is a misunderstanding of medication. In addition, there is no need to use drugs regularly, only when necessary. For example, there is no need to take antipyretics when there is no fever or low fever.

  How many kinds of cold medicine should I take?

  1. Pay attention to taking compound cold medicine with other drugs.

  There are both single and compound cold medicines. Compound drugs usually include several kinds of "cold medicines", so don’t reuse other drugs of the same kind, just take one drug of the same kind.

  For example, take the common cold medicine "XNOX" as an example, which already contains "acetaminophen, pseudoephedrine hydrochloride, dextromethorphan hydrobromide, chlorphenamine maleate". There are all kinds of drugs for reducing fever, relieving cough and relieving nasal symptoms, but there are no expectorant drugs. If there is a demand for expectoration, it is enough to add expectorant drugs.

  2. Don’t eat compound cold medicine containing antipyretic ingredients without fever.

  For example, you can choose cetirizine, loratadine or chlorphenamine maleate for nasal symptoms. Chlorphenamine maleate is the second choice, because chlorphenamine maleate is an older generation of antiallergic drugs with relatively many side effects, which may be inappropriate for some people. Another example is coughing and expectoration, so you can use some cough-relieving and expectorant drugs alone.

  Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together?

  1. Don’t think that it is Chinese medicine, so it does not conflict with western medicine by default.

  Traditional Chinese medicine is usually a compound. It is particularly important to note that some traditional Chinese medicine compounds also contain antipyretic ingredients of western medicine. For example, acetaminophen, such as vitamin C Yinqiao tablets, Yinju Jiedu pills and Ganmaoning capsules, all contain acetaminophen.

  Therefore, be sure to look at the pharmaceutical ingredients in the instructions before taking them. Do not take it with western medicine antipyretics.

  2. Chinese medicine is not "more is better", so don’t take it in multiple ways.

  Different traditional Chinese medicines may also have repeated ingredients or effects. Therefore, don’t blindly think that taking more than a few drugs can make more than one disease-resistant weapon. In fact, so many so-called weapons sometimes only bring more side effects, such as hurting the spleen and stomach and liver and kidney.

  Medication reminder of all kinds of drugs

  acetaminophen

  Excessive use can cause serious liver damage and even death.

  On March 3, 2020, National Medical Products Administration issued the Announcement on Revising the Instructions for Acetaminophen Regular Release and Slow Release Preparations, suggesting that the maximum amount of acetaminophen taken orally should not exceed 2g a day. If a normal person takes 6 ~ 10 grams at a time, it can cause extensive liver tissue necrosis and even liver failure. Therefore, it should be taken in strict accordance with the dosage and time interval of the instructions. Do not pursue the return of temperature to normal, but take medicine at short intervals or in large doses at will.

  Fever is the human body’s struggle against the virus. If the temperature of fever does not exceed 38.5℃ and the body is not particularly unwell, it is not recommended to take antipyretics.

  Ibuprofen

  A few patients will have symptoms of gastrointestinal discomfort after taking the medicine. Patients with active or previous history of peptic ulcer, gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation are prohibited.

  Acetaminophen and ibuprofen

  The two drugs should not be taken at the same time, and can be taken alternately.

  The antipyretic effects of the two drugs are similar, but a single dose of acetaminophen takes effect faster, while ibuprofen has a relatively strong antipyretic effect and a relatively long cooling time.

  Many kinds of compound cold medicines (including traditional Chinese medicine) contain acetaminophen, which needs special attention.

  Pseudoephedrine

  Severe hypertension and coronary heart disease are prohibited. Patients with hyperthyroidism, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, glaucoma and prostatic hypertrophy should use cold medicine containing pseudoephedrine with caution.

  Chlorphenamine maleate

  Use with caution for patients with bladder neck obstruction, pyloric duodenal obstruction, hyperthyroidism, glaucoma, peptic ulcer, hypertension and prostatic hypertrophy.

  Dextromethorphan Hydrobromide/pholcodine

  For patients with excessive phlegm, it is easy to cough up phlegm and aggravate infection. In severe cases, suffocation may occur. Therefore, phlegm should be eliminated first, and antitussive drugs should not be taken only.

  Safety tips for home medication in special period.

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

Can Chinese medicine and western medicine be eaten together? Doctor's urgent reminder

  Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University (text | Department of Pharmacy Chi Danyi), comprehensive People’s Daily Weibo, Henan Radio and Television Minsheng Channel.

Source: Nanjing Daily

Beijing police investigated and dealt with 9 people selling nucleic acid testing places and 4 people were administratively detained.

  Win the epidemic prevention and control war

  Yesterday afternoon, the 132nd COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control press conference was held. Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from the press conference that recently, Beijing police investigated and dealt with a case of selling nucleic acid testing places, and nine people sold Beijing nucleic acid testing places at a price of 1,780 yuan, which seriously disrupted the normal order of nucleic acid testing in this city and was investigated and dealt with by the public security department. Four of them have been administratively detained. In addition, since June 19th, the city’s public security department has continuously investigated and dealt with 14 cases of epidemic rumors, and dealt with 10 criminals according to law. The public security department suggested that citizens should consciously resist all kinds of false information about the epidemic and jointly safeguard the hard-won achievements of epidemic prevention and control.

  The police received the report and found clues through Weibo.

  At the press conference yesterday afternoon, Pan Xuhong, deputy director and spokesperson of Beijing Public Security Bureau, said that in order to do a good job in the accurate control of risk personnel and prevent the spread of the epidemic, the city clearly stated that "it is not necessary to leave Beijing". If it is really necessary to leave Beijing, it is necessary to hold a negative certificate of nucleic acid testing within 7 days, and some unscrupulous people smell "business opportunities" from it, claiming that they can quickly handle testing matters and make illegal profits, which seriously affects the normal order of nucleic acid testing. Recently, the Beijing police quickly investigated and dealt with such a case.

  Pan Xuhong said that on June 23, the police received a report from the masses, and a Weibo user posted a post saying, "Selling Beijing nucleic acid testing places, the results will be available in 24 hours and 48 hours, and the price is 1,780 yuan." After receiving the report, the police attached great importance to it and started work overnight, quickly arresting the information publisher Yan Motong (male, 23 years old). According to this person’s confession, Bai Moyu (male, 24 years old) was arrested. After in-depth investigation, Bai Mouyu was an employee of a bar, and its manager Wan Motao (male, 37 years old) organized a subordinate employee to set up a WeChat "nucleic acid detection group". Together with Yan, he posted news and solicited customers through the Internet, claiming that he could handle it urgently and get the results quickly. After increasing the price level by level, he introduced the masses to relevant institutions for nucleic acid detection, and the gang members respectively benefited from 50 yuan to 2,000 yuan. At present, the police have seized 9 people involved in the case, of which 4 people, including Yan, have been administratively detained according to law, and other people involved in the case and the case are under further investigation.

  Since the 19th, 14 cases involving epidemic rumors have been investigated.

  Pan Xuhong said that at present, with the joint efforts of the whole city, the epidemic prevention and control work has achieved positive results, but the situation is still severe and complicated, and we must not take it lightly. Crimes involving epidemic situation seriously infringe upon the interests of the masses and interfere with the overall situation of prevention and control work. In this regard, the Beijing police have always maintained a high-pressure situation. Since the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau issued a typical case of fabricating and spreading rumors related to the epidemic on June 19, it has continuously investigated and dealt with 14 related cases and dealt with 10 criminals according to law.

  Recently, a netizen released the news that "a case was diagnosed in Wangfujing Department Store in Beijing, and everyone in the building had to do nucleic acid testing". According to the police, netizen Fan Moufu (male, 39 years old) deliberately fabricated the above false news to create influence and attract attention, and spread it in WeChat group, seriously disrupting social order. Another example is that Jiang (male, 33 years old), an employee of a company, lied to his colleagues that he was positive for nucleic acid testing in order to seek excitement, causing the employees of the company to panic and call the police. Both of them were dealt with by the public security organs according to law.

  The public security department suggested that the current nucleic acid detection capacity in this city has been rapidly improved, and the detection work of key populations, key areas and key areas has been carried out in an orderly manner. It is hoped that the general public will participate in the detection through formal channels to ensure that the detection resources are used at the most critical nodes to block the spread of the epidemic. At the same time, I hope everyone will keep their eyes open, not be credulous or blindly obedient, consciously resist all kinds of false information about the epidemic and jointly safeguard the hard-won achievements in epidemic prevention and control. Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

  case

  Among the 13 newly confirmed cases, there was a severe case.

  Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, reported the newly confirmed cases on the 24th at the press conference. Among them, a 60-year-old female patient was diagnosed after the fifth test because the first four sampling results were negative. According to the notification, one serious case was included in the clinical classification.

  A sixty-year-old female patient

  The first four sampling results were all negative.

  Pang Xinghuo said that among the 13 newly confirmed cases on the 24th, there were 5 males and 8 females. The average age is 42 years old, the youngest is 18 years old and the oldest is 60 years old. According to the place of residence, there are 9 cases in Fengtai District and 4 cases in Daxing District. According to the clinical classification, there is 1 severe case, 10 common cases and 2 light cases. The Beijing Youth Daily reporter found that the correlation between the epidemic situation and Xinfadi is still strong. Six case work units are Xinfadi wholesale market, and five people have purchased in Xinfadi market.

  Among the 13 confirmed cases, two people were negative for the first time, and they were positive only after further sampling. Among them, one 60-year-old female patient’s first four sampling results were negative. The specific situation is: Case 13, female, 60 years old, lives in Tuanheyuan Community, Kannonji Street, Daxing District, and has retired. On June 3rd, I went to Xinfadi Market for purchase. On June 14th, as a close contact of the confirmed case, I began to observe in isolation. On June 16th, I developed fever symptoms. On that day, I was transported to Daxing District People’s Hospital by 120 ambulances. From June 15th to 22nd, I collected throat swabs for nucleic acid detection four times, all of which were negative. On June 23rd, I was positive for nucleic acid detection, and on June 24th, I was diagnosed. The clinical classification was common.

  Among the 13 patients diagnosed on the 24th, the youngest is 18 years old, who went to Xinfadi market for purchase on June 11th. Patients were mainly in their parents’ homes and had contact with friends before being isolated. During this period, they went to Xiangxiang Breakfast and Soup-stock Lamian Noodles near Ba Zhuangzi Village in Huaxiang (region) successively, and went shopping in nearby shops.

  One case went shopping in Jubaoyuan, niujie.

  All the employees in this store were negative for nucleic acid detection.

  In addition to the residential area where the case lived and the Xinfadi market, the patients diagnosed yesterday visited many places, such as Majialou Zhongxing Huamu Wholesale Center in Fengtai District, Xinqing North Lane in Xihongmen Town, Dinghuixie Kitchen Restaurant in Haidian District and niujie Jubaoyuan Catering Co., Ltd..

  The reporter of Beiqing Daily noticed that one of the 38-year-old male patients, as the manager and buyer of Dinghuixie Kitchen Restaurant in Haidian District, often went to Xinfadi Wholesale Market for shopping. On June 15th, he drove to niujie Jubaoyuan Catering Co., Ltd. for shopping. Niujie Jubaoyuan Restaurant said in an interview with the media yesterday afternoon that the case had been shopping at the take-out window of the restaurant and had never entered the store. All the employees of the store had been tested for nucleic acid, and the results were negative. At that time, the patient only had contact with the window salesperson. The salesperson had finished the nucleic acid test and the result was negative. He was observing in isolation at home and the restaurant was open normally. Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

  point out

  Please remember these new features of Beijing Health Bao upgrade version 3.0.

  At yesterday’s press conference, Pan Feng, deputy director of Beijing Economic and Information Technology Bureau, said that up to now, a total of 29 million people in the city have used Health Bao to check their health status for 360 million times. Since the launch of the code scanning function, the city has generated a total of 340,000 QR codes of the registration book, and about 5 million people have achieved electronic registration through code scanning. After upgrading to version 3.0, Beijing Health Bao will provide online code scanning function and electronic registration service. All units returning to work and production should use the code scanning function. After personal code scanning registration, only two digits of surname and ID number are reserved. Teenagers under the age of 16 are not forced to carry out face recognition. They only need to press the photo area for 3 seconds in the result page to take photos again. Those who report or lie about their health status will be held accountable according to law.

  Pan Feng introduced that this health treasure upgrade has added a code scanning function, which can be used in commercial buildings, restaurants, shopping malls and other places. Specifically, each place can designate a special person as a registrar. By filling in the relevant information of the unit, the registrar applies for obtaining the QR code of the register directly or printing and posting it. Visitors can register by scanning the QR code, and the corresponding health status will also be presented when scanning the code. If the visitor’s status is abnormal, the ambulance call tone will be directly prompted when scanning the code, which is convenient for the registrar to quickly identify. Registrars can view visitors’ information in real time through mobile terminals such as mobile phones, or manage it after exporting, or delete the register as needed. Only the registrar whose health status is "no abnormality" can apply for the registration book. When the registrar’s health status is abnormal or there are violations of laws and regulations, the registration book will be deactivated and invalid.

  Pan Feng introduced that the version 3.0 package was optimized and improved in combination with the opinions and suggestions on the use of teenagers, photo replacement and national platform verification. First, teenagers under the age of 16 are not forced to carry out face recognition, and the results page directly displays photos and related status, and the bottom of the photos is marked with "photos of minors without face recognition"; The second is to improve the photo replacement method. You only need to press the photo area for 3 seconds on the result page to take a new photo. The third is to optimize the national platform trip verification interface. At the same time, the new version adds a notice bar and a message bar at the top and bottom respectively to facilitate communication and interaction.

  Recently, some parks, banks, supermarkets and other places have launched humanized search service based on the "others’ search" function of Health Treasure, which has solved the use problems of some elderly people. In addition, after this upgrade, a very small number of users have reported the problem of incomplete display of the health treasure page, which can be solved by upgrading the WeChat version.

  Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu Cartography/Pan Wei

  remove doubts

  What if the health treasure turns red and yellow?

  You need to contact CDC or your community.

  If your health treasure turns into a red "centralized observation" state, it means that you belong to the people who have been diagnosed, suspected, closely contacted or asymptomatic infected by the health department of this city since the outbreak. Please fulfill the obligation of centralized observation as required. If you have any questions, please contact the municipal CDC.

  If your health treasure turns into a yellow "home observation" state, it means that you have visited related places such as Xinfadi through community arrangement, and the community has included you in the home observation management. Please follow the community management requirements. Please contact your community if you have any questions.

  If your health treasure shows the pop-up status, in one case, you have recently entered and exited Beijing. Please click "Continue" on the page to jump to the national platform for itinerary verification. In another case, you may have recently entered and exited the middle and high-risk areas, so please contact your community or relevant units immediately to report for duty, so as to correctly fulfill your epidemic prevention obligations.

  Is there a false negative problem in nucleic acid testing?

  Expert: Beijing adopts the "1+3" model.

  Wang Guiqiang, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the First Hospital of Peking University, said at yesterday’s press conference that there are also false negatives in nucleic acid testing, and people with negative results in nucleic acid testing should not be taken lightly.

  Wang Guiqiang said that the control of the COVID-19 epidemic emphasized "four early days", and the important link was nucleic acid detection, which is the most important method to diagnose infection at present. The COVID-19 epidemic in Beijing has also strengthened the ability of nucleic acid detection. On the basis of all tests, Beijing has also tested high-risk groups. Including all kinds of personnel related to the new site, high-risk communities and towns, all medical personnel, and industries in close contact with the crowd, have also been tested, which is an important measure to control the epidemic. Beijing maintains the life safety and health of personnel at all costs. More than half of the cases in the city were found through proactive nucleic acid detection. However, there is a false negative in nucleic acid testing. In fever clinics, Beijing has now adopted a "1+3" model, that is, nucleic acid testing plus serological antibody testing, plus imaging and blood testing. The actual purpose is to further reduce the risk of missed diagnosis and effectively control the epidemic.

  Is seafood, beef and mutton still edible?

  Covid-19 is not infected by digestive tract.

  At present, many residents are afraid to eat meat for fear of being infected. At yesterday’s press conference, Wang Guiqiang, director of the Infectious Diseases Department of the First Hospital of Peking University, also made suggestions on this phenomenon. He said that the epidemic mainly occurred in the epidemic market of Xinfadi. At present, the meat, eggs and seafood in other shopping malls in Beijing are safe, and citizens can buy and eat with confidence.

  At the same time, Wang Guiqiang suggested that Covid-19 is mainly transmitted through droplets and close contact, and there is no evidence that the virus can be transmitted through the digestive tract. The risk of transmission through the digestive tract is very low. However, Wang Guiqiang also reminded the general public that it is a period of high incidence of digestive tract diseases, so food must be well cleaned and cooked separately, otherwise it may lead to the spread of digestive tract diseases, and it is recommended to eat less raw food.

  Text/Reporter Jiang Ruojing Li Zewei Jing Liu

Analysis of Macroeconomic Operation in 2018 and Prospect in 2019

  I. Macroeconomic performance

  (1) Gross domestic product

  1. The macroeconomic boom is declining, and the economic growth rate is slowing down quarter by quarter. Since 2018, China’s macroeconomic growth rate has continued to decline slightly, basically in the downward stage of the boom cycle, which is basically consistent with the global economic operation.

  According to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 totaled 90.0 trillion yuan, and the nominal GDP increased by 9.7% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from 2017; The real GDP increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the actual growth rate decreased by 0.2[1] and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with 2017 and the first three quarters, and it declined quarter by quarter. Among them, the year-on-year real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter [2] dropped to 6.4% (Figure 1-1), which was the same as that in the first quarter of 2009, and the lowest since the data was recorded (1992). It should be noted that the economic growth in 2018 is still in a stable range, which has not deviated from the target range of "around 6.5%" set at the beginning of the year, nor has it brought obvious pressure on employment.

  2. The basic role of consumption has been enhanced, investment has weakened year-on-year, and net exports have returned to a negative pull on economic growth. In terms of troika, in 2018, consumption drove GDP growth by 5.0 percentage points, 0.9 percentage points higher than that in 2017. In the context of the continuous decline of zero social growth rate during the year, service consumption maintained rapid growth, which further enhanced the basic role of consumption in economic growth. In 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down sharply, which led to the weakening of the contribution of investment to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points, down 0.1 percentage points from 2017. Due to the sharp narrowing of the trade surplus in goods, the trade deficit in services has significantly expanded, and net exports have declined year-on-year. In 2018, net exports lowered the GDP growth rate by 0.6 percentage points, while in 2017, it was positively pulled by 0.6 percentage points. Therefore, from the perspective of total demand, the slowdown in GDP growth in 2018 is mainly due to the negative impact of net exports and the decline in investment contribution, while consumption has become a ballast stone to stabilize the macro economy.

  (II) Three industries and their operation conditions

  1. The growth rate of the three industries generally declined, and the leading role of the service industry was stable. In terms of three industries, the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 7.6% year-on-year in 2018, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 2017, but still faster than the GDP growth rate by 1 percentage point in the same period, indicating that the service industry continued to play a leading role in the macro-economy. The added value of the secondary industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than that of 2017 and 0.8 percentage point lower than that of GDP in the same period. The main reason is that China is now in the late stage of industrialization, and the share of industry in the national economy has declined. The added value of the primary industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017. In 2018, the growth rate of the three industries generally declined, which was basically in sync with the slowdown in GDP growth (Figure 1-2), indicating that the weakening of the demand side was positively transmitted to the production side and had a wide impact.

  From the perspective of contribution rate and pull rate, in 2018, the service industry played a stable leading role in economic growth, with its contribution rate to GDP growth of 60.1% and pull rate of 4.0 percentage points, both higher than that of the secondary industry [3], but 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that of 2017, which is confirmed by the slowdown of service industry production growth. In 2018, the national service industry production index increased by 7.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017.

  2. The growth rate of industrial production has slowed down steadily. In 2018, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with 2017, showing a steady slowdown. Among the three categories, the mining industry has accelerated its production, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the added value of the industry in the whole year is 3.8 percentage points faster than that in 2017, mainly due to rising prices, high profits, reduced capacity and environmental protection and limited production. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of added value of electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 1.8 percentage points faster than that of 2017, which was consistent with the growth trend of power generation in the same period, mainly reflecting the impact of changes in energy structure. Due to the weakening of terminal demand, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing added value, which accounts for nearly 90% of the industry, dropped by 0.7 percentage points compared with 2017, which dragged down the growth rate of industrial added value in 2018 (Figure 1-3).

  The profits of industrial enterprises grew rapidly, and the trend was high before and low after the year. In the first 11 months of 2018, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 9.2 percentage points compared with the same period in 2017. From the trend of the year, with the decline of PPI growth rate and the impact of industrial production slowdown on corporate profits, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises dropped sharply in the second half of the year, and the year-on-year growth rate in November dropped to -1.8%, which was the first negative year-on-year increase in the past three years (Figure 1-4).

  (3) Investment in fixed assets

  1. Infrastructure investment slowed sharply, and investment kinetic energy accelerated to switch. In 2018, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points compared with 2017, mainly due to the drag of infrastructure investment. From the perspective of the three major types of investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly. The annual infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 19% in 2017, while the growth rate of real estate and manufacturing investment accelerated (Figure 1-5).

  The weakening of infrastructure investment in 2018 reflects the impact of strict supervision: First, the source of funds is limited. Local government debt supervision has been continuously strengthened, financing platforms have been strictly constrained, and off-balance sheet financing has continued to shrink sharply. Second, the centralized rectification of PPP has led to the suspension of some infrastructure projects, thus impacting infrastructure investment.

  It is worth noting that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the third quarter rarely increased negatively. From July to September, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was -1.8%, -4.3% and -1.9% respectively. Since the fourth quarter, with the macro-policy turning to steady growth, the short board of infrastructure has begun to accelerate, driving the monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment back to the positive range. The year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in October-December was 6.7%, 3.7% and 3.8% respectively. Further, the stabilization of infrastructure has led to a rebound in the growth rate of fixed asset investment.

  2. The growth rate of real estate investment has accelerated, while sales have slowed down. In 2018, real estate investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.5 percentage points faster than that in the same period of 2017, mainly due to the sharp year-on-year increase in new construction area driven by previous destocking and higher land acquisition expenses. During the year, the newly started area increased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was greatly accelerated by 10.2 percentage points compared with 2017 (Figure 1-6); From January to November, the land purchase fee increased by 60.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 38.6 percentage points faster than that of the same period in 2017.

  In 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area and sales was 1.3% and 12.2%, respectively, which was lower than that in 2017 and the first three quarters (Figure 1-7). The cooling market sentiment led to a slowdown in investment in the fourth quarter. From October to December, the growth rate of real estate investment was 7.7%, 9.3% and 7.8% respectively, which was significantly lower than the high point in July (13.2%).

  3. The supporting role of new kinetic energy is enhanced, the marginal capacity of traditional industries is weakened, and the growth of manufacturing investment is accelerated. In 2018, manufacturing investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points faster than that in 2017. From the perspective of sub-sectors, in 2018, investment in traditional manufacturing industries such as automobile manufacturing, food and beverage, textile and clothing, and chemical industry continued to be weak, while investment in high-tech manufacturing industries such as special equipment, computers, communications, and other electronic equipment maintained rapid growth, and new kinetic energy became the main support of the manufacturing industry. In addition, due to the marginal weakening of the policy of de-capacity, investment in industries related to de-capacity, such as steel, non-ferrous metals and non-metallic mineral products, rebounded, and the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry was boosted to some extent.

  It is worth mentioning that in 2018, private fixed assets investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 2.7 percentage points compared with 2017 (Figure 1-8). Private investment is mainly concentrated in manufacturing industry, which is consistent with the rebound of manufacturing investment growth rate in the same period. However, the lower profits of industrial enterprises and the trade friction between China and the United States may adversely affect private investment.

  (4) Consumption

  1. The slight decrease in income has slowed down the zero growth rate of the society, and the consumption structure has shifted from physical objects to services. In 2018, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points compared with 2017. On the one hand, this steady and slightly declining trend is consistent with the income trend of residents: in 2018, the per capita disposable income of urban residents nationwide increased by 7.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017. On the other hand, in 2018, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points faster than that in 2017, which deviated from the downward trend of zero social growth rate reflecting commodity consumption, indicating that residents’ service consumption is accelerating and confirming the transformation of consumption structure (Figure 1-9).

  2. Consumption of commodities above designated size is generally depressed, with the decline of automobile retail sales as the main drag. Looking at the retail sales of various categories of goods above designated size, the growth rate of retail sales of most categories of goods in 2018 was not as fast as that in the same period of 2017, among which the retail sales of automobiles, which accounted for about 30% of the total, decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 8.0 and 2.6 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2017 and the first three quarters. Since May, the automobile retail sales have been continuously negative growth, and the decline at the end of the year has expanded to about 10%, which has become the main reason for the overall decline in the zero growth rate of the society.

  New formats such as online consumption remain active. In 2018, the national retail sales of online goods and services increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 8.3 percentage points lower than that in 2017, but it was still in the high-speed growth range. The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 25.4% year-on-year, which was 16.4 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 18.4% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, up 3.4 percentage points from 2017.

  (5) Import and export

  1. Foreign trade achieved rapid growth, and the trade surplus narrowed significantly. In dollar terms, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade increased by 12.6% year-on-year in 2018, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points faster than that in 2017. Among them, exports increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year, both of which maintained a relatively rapid growth momentum (Figure 1-10). It should be noted that the year-on-year growth rate of China’s imports and exports in the fourth quarter dropped significantly compared with the previous three quarters, due to the weakening of internal and external demand, the weakening of the effect of "grabbing exports" and the weakening of the supporting role of price factors, so the trend in the year was high before and low after. According to our calculation, the import and export volume in the fourth quarter increased by 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, which was significantly lower than the cumulative growth rate of 20.2% and 12.2% in the previous three quarters.

  In terms of trade balance, China’s foreign trade surplus in 2018 totaled US$ 351.8 billion, down 16.2% year-on-year, indicating that the pull of net exports of commodity trade on economic growth continued to weaken.

  2. The global economy affects China’s export trend, and the impact of Sino-US trade friction is becoming more and more obvious. In 2018, China’s export volume increased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.0 percentage points faster than that in 2017, reflecting that external demand remained strong in general under the background of the continuous expansion of the external economy.

  From the trend of the year, the momentum of global economic expansion slowed marginally in 2018, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline from 54.4% at the beginning of the year to 51.2% at the end of the year (Figure 1-11). Among the major economies, the economic growth momentum of the euro zone and Japan tends to weaken, and only the US economy is stimulated by tax cuts to grow strongly. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the rise of the US dollar index led to the intensification of macroeconomic fluctuations in a number of emerging markets, and the local currency depreciated significantly. The weakening of external fundamentals is the main reason why the growth rate of China’s export trade was high before and then low during the year.

  Since 2018, the trade friction between China and the United States has been heating up [4], which has a great impact on market sentiment. However, the relevant tariff measures have only officially landed since the second half of the year, and the impact of the increase in tariff rate on the import and export trade volume has to be filtered by factors such as tariff conductivity and price elasticity of demand, as well as the phenomenon of "grabbing exports" from the United States. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole year, Sino-US trade friction has not significantly dragged down China’s export growth. However, with the decline of the "export-grabbing" dividend, the impact of export demand overdraft appears, and the negative effects of Sino-US trade friction will gradually be released, which has been reflected in the export data in December.

  3. Higher commodity prices have superimposed policy effects, and imports have maintained high growth. In 2018, China’s imports increased by 15.8% year-on-year. Under the background of high base and weak domestic demand, China’s imports continued to grow at a high speed in 2018, which benefited from three factors: First, the marginal domestic demand weakened, but the overall resilience was strong, which played a fundamental role in driving import growth; Second, the rebound in crude oil prices has led to higher commodity prices, which have obviously supported the growth rate of imports; Third, the intensive introduction of import expansion policies in 2018 has played a certain role in boosting import growth.

  However, the growth rate of imports slowed down significantly at the end of the year, and the import volume in December turned negative year-on-year, with a drop of 7.6%, the lowest in nearly two and a half years. On the one hand, the impact of slowing domestic demand on import demand has gradually emerged. As of December, China’s manufacturing import PMI index has been in a contraction range for six consecutive months; On the other hand, due to the slowdown of global economic growth, the price increase of major commodities and industrial products weakened and the year-on-year increase generally narrowed, and the supporting role of price factors on import growth decreased accordingly.

  (6) Prices

  1. CPI has risen significantly year-on-year, but it is still at a moderate growth level. In 2018, CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with 2017, which exceeded 2.0% for the first time in four years. During the year, the CPI generally showed a trend of low before and then high. Excluding the disturbance of the Spring Festival in January and February, the CPI peak appeared in September and October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. However, since November, the upward trend of CPI has obviously eased, and the year-on-year increase in December has dropped to 1.9%, mainly due to the sharp drop in international oil prices, the continuous downward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices and the lower price of pork. Overall, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has increased, it is still in a moderate range, which has not constrained monetary policy (Figure 1-12).

  It is worth noting that pork prices have a great influence on the trend of CPI. In 2018, pork prices showed a trend of falling first, then rising and then falling. Due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, pork prices continued to fall in the first half of the year and the decline expanded month by month, dragging down CPI year-on-year. Since June, the sluggish pig market and local epidemics have caused the supply of pork to tighten, and the superimposed trade friction has pushed up the price of soybean meal. The price of pork has stabilized and rebounded, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed month by month, and the CPI has also rebounded simultaneously. In the fourth quarter, pork prices generally declined due to the effect of "grabbing the column" caused by the expansion of swine fever epidemic.

  2. The high cardinal number superimposed the balance of supply and demand, and the PPI dropped significantly year-on-year. In 2018, PPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, which was 2.8 percentage points lower than that in 2017 (Figure 1-13). The main reason is the high base in 2017, coupled with the weakening of supply-side capacity reduction and environmental protection and limited production, the decline in demand-side investment and consumption growth, and the decline in support for PPI. From the trend point of view, except for the sharp rise in international oil prices in the second quarter, which led to the rebound of domestic PPI, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI declined as a whole, with the highest month-on-year increase in June (4.7%) and the lowest in December (0.9%).

  It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in 2018 is highly resonant with the growth rate of international oil prices, indicating that oil prices continue to be a key variable affecting the PPI trend. In the first three quarters, international oil prices fluctuated, and the year-on-year growth rate fluctuated since March, boosting the domestic PPI to rise continuously from May, and the year-on-year growth rate also exceeded general expectations. However, since the fourth quarter, the international oil price has plunged continuously after hitting the high point of the year in early October, which reflects the combined influence of weakening demand expectations, the weaker impact of the situation in the Middle East on supply and the higher US dollar index. As a result, the pulling effect of oil prices on PPI has been weakened accordingly, which has become an important reason for the decline of PPI since November and the acceleration of the year-on-year growth rate.

  (7) Exchange rate

  1. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has obvious amplitude and twists and turns. From the beginning of 2018 to the beginning of February 2018, the RMB basically showed an upward trend against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB dropped from 6.50 to 6.28. By the end of April, it basically fluctuated around 6.30, which was stable as a whole. From May to the beginning of December, the RMB started an obvious devaluation against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB rose unilaterally from 6.36 to 6.94, setting a new high in two years. Subsequently, by the end of 2018, the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the central parity of the US dollar against the RMB finally closed at 6.84. From the annual trend, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar can be described as twists and turns, and the highest amplitude of the middle price during the year [5] is close to 11% (Figure 1-14).

  The reasons for the change of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2018 include both internal and external factors, among which external factors have a greater impact. Externally: First, the US dollar index has changed in the same period, and the trend of the US dollar index basically corresponds to the RMB exchange rate. In 2018, the US dollar index showed a trend of "falling before and then rising", with the end of April as the dividing point. Before that, it basically fluctuated around 90, and at the lowest time, it went all the way, reaching the highest of 97.69. The strength of the US dollar drives the depreciation of non-US dollar currencies, including RMB. Second, the divergence of monetary policies between China and the United States has led to the narrowing of spreads between the two countries. Under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the People’s Bank of China did not follow the domestic real economy situation, which led to the narrowing of the spread between China and the United States, thus suppressing the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar to some extent. Internally, in 2018, the degree of marketization of RMB exchange rate will be further improved, which will obviously enhance the flexibility of two-way floating of RMB exchange rate, and exchange rate fluctuation under the influence of market supply and demand is a normal phenomenon. In fact, the current exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is only a phased adjustment. If the observation period is extended, we can find that the exchange rate in 2018 has not deviated from the reasonable operating range (Figure 1-14).

  2.CFETS index rises first, then falls and then stabilizes. In 2018, the CFETS index fluctuated due to the fluctuation of the exchange rate of major currencies caused by the change of the US dollar index (Figure 1-15). Taking the middle of the year as a watershed: the first half of the year showed a volatile upward trend, rising from 94.90 at the beginning of the year to 97.38 at the end of June. The main reason is that the currencies of other major countries have depreciated against the US dollar at this stage, while China’s economy has strong resilience and the fundamentals support the CFETS index to stabilize. In the second half of the year, it began to turn into a falling range, all the way down to below 93, but it gradually stabilized in the fourth quarter and rose slightly at the end of the year. The decline of CFETS index in the second half of the year is mainly caused by two factors: first, the monetary policy of major countries began to tighten marginally in the second half of the year, while China’s monetary policy was stable and slightly loose, which was not conducive to overseas capital inflows; Second, the trade friction between China and the United States has warmed up, which has increased the uncertainty of China’s foreign trade prospects and led to the warming of RMB bear sentiment.

  Second, macroeconomic policies

  (A) fiscal policy

  1. The growth rate of fiscal revenue is high before and then low. In 2018, the proactive fiscal policy was gradually strengthened, and the growth rate of fiscal revenue gradually slowed down. Judging from the growth rate of national general public budget revenue, the growth rate in the second half of the year was 4.2 percentage points lower than that in the first half. From January to December, the national general public budget revenue exceeded 18.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.08 trillion yuan over 2017 and a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Among them, the central general public budget revenue was 8.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; The local general public budget revenue at this level was 9.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The tax revenue in the national general public budget revenue was 15.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.4 percentage points compared with 2017; Non-tax revenue was 2.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.

  First, the steady and slow trend of fiscal revenue is obvious. From the perspective of the whole year, the fiscal revenue growth is generally stable, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from January to December is only 1.2 percentage points lower than that in 2017. However, on a monthly basis, it basically slowed down month by month, and the growth rate was negative in October and November. This shows that the growth rate of fiscal revenue in the whole year can remain basically stable, mainly due to the rapid growth in the first half of the year. As the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction policy is gradually released in the second half of the year, the slowdown in tax growth drives the fiscal revenue growth to slow down (Figure 2-1).

  Second, tax cuts have significantly reduced the growth rate of tax revenue. In the first half of 2018, due to the stabilization of industrial product prices, the moderate increase in consumer prices, and the high prosperity of industry, commerce and service industries, the circulating taxes represented by value-added tax and consumption tax grew rapidly, thus driving the fiscal revenue to maintain high growth. In the second half of the year, the executive meeting of the State Council established the policy requirement of "active fiscal policy should be more active", and the degree of tax reduction and fee reduction increased significantly, which led to a significant decline in the growth of corporate income tax, personal income tax and value-added tax in the second half of the year, and the fiscal revenue began to slow down, and even decreased year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

  Third, the fee reduction has led to a continuous negative increase in non-tax revenue. Affected by the intensified measures to reduce fees and the regulation of non-tax revenue in some areas, the year-on-year growth rate of non-tax revenue in China was always negative in 2018, and the year-on-year growth rate in July was as low as -31.93%, the lowest growth rate since January 2016 (Figure 2-1). At the same time, the continuous decline in non-tax revenue has also led to an increase in the proportion of tax revenue. In 2018, the proportion of national tax revenue to fiscal revenue increased by 1.65 percentage points year-on-year to 85.30%.

  Fourth, the income progress is fast first and then slow. The progress of fiscal revenue in 2018 [6] has been accelerated compared with that in 2017. Since February, the progress of fiscal revenue has always been about 1.5 percentage points ahead of the same period in 2017, indicating the impact of rapid revenue growth in the first half of the year. Since July, the progress of fiscal revenue has gradually slowed down, which is about 0.8 percentage points ahead of the same period in 2017, and the leading gap has gradually narrowed, which was 0.07 percentage points in September. Since October, the progress of fiscal revenue in 2018 has begun to lag behind that in 2017, and the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction has gradually become apparent.

  2. The fiscal expenditure maintained a high intensity, and the expenditure progress was generally accelerated. From January to December, the national general public budget expenditure was 22.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 810.9 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2017, an increase of 8.7%. Among them, the central general public budget expenditure at this level was 3.27 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year; The local general public budget expenditure was 18.82 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year.

  First, the growth rate is basically flat, and the expenditure intensity is not reduced. In 2018, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 8.7% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than that in 2017. The annual expenditure showed a trend of slow before and then fast, and the scale of expenditure in the second half of the year increased significantly compared with that in the first half of 2017, which was related to the high base in the first half of 2017 and the obvious strength of fiscal expenditure in the second half of 2018. Overall, the intensity of fiscal expenditure in 2018 is relatively high. In the first quarter, the first half of the year and the first three quarters, the national general public budget expenditure progress reached 24.3%, 53.2% and 77.8% respectively, and the annual public budget expenditure scale exceeded 22 trillion yuan.

  Second, fiscal expenditure is more cohesive and efficient. Reflected in the further optimization of the fiscal expenditure structure, financial support in the three major battles, people’s livelihood expenditures and key areas has increased. In 2018, various people’s livelihood-related expenditures [7] maintained rapid growth year-on-year; The annual expenditure on poverty alleviation reached 477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.6%; Expenditure on pollution prevention and natural ecological protection increased by 29.6% and 17.5% respectively. Expenditure on social security and employment, and expenditure on subsidies from basic old-age insurance funds increased by 9.7% and 11.4% respectively.

  Third, the proportion of infrastructure expenditure in the second half of the year rose to a high point in recent years. In 2018, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment showed a significant decline, and the fiscal expenditure fully played a countercyclical hedging role. The three infrastructure expenditures (transportation, agriculture, forestry and water affairs, and urban and rural community affairs) maintained a high intensity, and showed a trend of slow before and fast after. In the first half of the year, the tightening of local debt supervision led to a decrease in the scale of off-budget infrastructure expenditure and weakened the overall infrastructure investment. Therefore, the effect of fiscal expenditure on hedging infrastructure decline was not significant: from January to June, the year-on-year growth rates of transportation and agriculture, forestry and water affairs expenditures accelerated by 0.5 and 3.7 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2017, but the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 13.8 percentage points compared with the same period of 2017. In the second half of the year, infrastructure expenditure began to accelerate gradually, which led to the stabilization of the growth rate of generalized infrastructure since October. In 2018, three infrastructure expenditures accounted for 24.7% of the total expenditure, which was 3 percentage points higher than that in 2009, when the expansionary fiscal policy was the most obvious.

  3. The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly. Since 2018, under the tone of active fiscal policy, the scale of local government bond issuance has increased moderately, and the overall situation is slow before and then fast. In the first half of the year, under the influence of factors such as stricter local debt supervision and larger replacement quota, the pace of issuing new special bonds slowed down compared with previous years. From January to June, a total of 1.41 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, of which only 332.9 billion yuan were issued. At the meeting of the Political Bureau at the end of July, the proactive fiscal policy should be strengthened. In August, the Ministry of Finance issued a document [8] explicitly requesting to speed up the issuance of local government special bonds, and then the scale of special bond issuance increased significantly: from August to December, a total of 1.99 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, of which 1.38 trillion yuan of new bonds were issued.

  (B) credit and monetary policy

  1. Monetary policy focuses on the domestic market and has undergone many marginal adjustments. In 2018, China’s monetary policy will face both internal and external challenges. External uncertainties such as growth differentiation and trade friction between China and the United States weaken the independence of monetary policy, and multiple internal factors such as capital market turmoil and the downturn of the real economy hinder the implementation of the policy. Facing the complicated objective situation, China’s monetary policy has always served the needs of domestic economic operation, taking into account the internal and external balance.

  On the premise of overall stability, monetary policy pays more attention to countercyclical adjustment, timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning, and there is marginal change in tightness, and the liquidity fundamentals switch accordingly: in the first half of the year, the general tone of stability and neutrality was maintained, and it was clearly put forward that "the general gate of money supply should be managed well", and the liquidity environment was neutral and moderate; In the second half of the year, the weight of "steady growth" in the policy mix increased significantly, monetary policy appeared moderate structural easing, the liquidity of the financial system remained reasonable and abundant, and it gradually changed to "wide credit". Generally speaking, monetary policy in 2018 focuses on three key tasks: unblocking the transmission mechanism, solving the financing difficulties of private and small and micro enterprises, and coping with excessive fluctuations in asset prices.

  First, give consideration to the internal and external balance, and "inside" and "outside". "Focus on China" is the core principle of monetary policy in 2018. From the high-level statement, President Yi Gang has repeatedly stated in public that the main basis of China’s monetary policy is the comprehensive consideration of domestic fundamentals, and the main goal is to serve the domestic real economy. From the specific practice, in 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times, but the People’s Bank of China did not obviously follow the will. During the year, it implemented two targeted cuts to required reserve ratios, two RRR cuts, and three increases in refinancing and rediscount quotas; At the beginning of October, the yield of US bonds rose sharply. On October 15, the People’s Bank of China released 750 billion yuan of incremental funds by replacing the RRR cut. It can be seen that the logic of monetary policy is "to stabilize internal and external pressures with internal stability", and to ensure the stability of various indicators at a reasonable level by improving domestic economic fundamentals.

  The second is to maintain stability and fine-tune. In 2018, the general tone of monetary policy remained stable and neutral, and the liquidity was reasonably abundant. According to the data, the average value of DR007 during the year was about 2.71%, which was 10BP lower than that in 2017, reflecting the effect of a prudent neutral monetary policy; The average value of DR007 in the first half of the year was 2.82%, and it dropped to 2.61% in the second half of the year, and the interest rate center moved down, reflecting that the monetary policy was more flexible and the tightness was fine-tuned during the year. Only seven working days in DR007 exceeded 3%, 10 days less than that in 2017, and all of them were at the end of the quarter and the end of the year, which indicated that the overall funds were stable and loose (Figure 2-2).

  The third is to highlight the countercyclical period and focus on stabilizing expectations. Since the second quarter of 2018, the pressure of domestic economic downturn and exchange rate depreciation has increased significantly. Correspondingly, the countercyclical adjustment role of monetary policy has been continuously strengthened, and efforts have been made to guide and stabilize expectations. Under this premise, policy tools are more flexible and liquidity management methods tend to be refined: in the first half of the year, MLF will be replaced by RRR cuts, and incremental funds will be used to support private enterprises and small businesses; Expand the scope of MLF collateral [9]; Increase the amount of refinancing and rediscount for supporting small farmers, and lower the interest rate of refinancing for small farmers; In the second half of the year, targeted cuts to required reserve ratios supported "debt-to-equity swap" and microfinance; Raise the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business to 20%; Issuing central bank bills in Hong Kong to enrich offshore RMB liquidity adjustment tools; Create a targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF). These measures are effective and precise, so as to ensure that the economy runs smoothly in a reasonable range in 2018, the financial market is expected to stabilize, and the macro leverage ratio is stable at a moderate level.

  The fourth is to emphasize dredging transmission and improve the effectiveness of policies. In 2018, the People’s Bank of China repeatedly emphasized to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which was mentioned six times in the implementation report of monetary policy in the second quarter, aiming at breaking through the structural and local constraints of liquidity transmission, realizing "wide credit" and promoting the formation of a virtuous circle of finance and the real economy. Therefore, the monetary policy has obvious characteristics of "directional transportation+structural support", and all previous popular investments are to support the real economy, especially the financing of private and small and micro enterprises. Specifically, it includes: targeted cuts to required reserve ratios for many times, limiting the use of funds for RRR reduction, relaxing the limit on the proportion of local debt underwriting, guiding the allocation of high-grade credit bonds through the window, and simultaneously exerting efforts from three channels: loan, debt and stock through the "three arrows". There are two results: first, ensure that the total liquidity matches the real economy and avoid "flooding"; The second is to optimize the liquidity structure, improve the financing environment of the private economy, and avoid the "capital barrier lake".

  2. The overall money supply is moderate, and the scale of social financing has dropped significantly. In 2018, the growth rate of China’s money supply further decreased and remained at a low level. By the end of the year, the balance of M2 was 182.67 trillion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 balance at the end of each month was lower than 8.5%. The balance of M1 was 55.17 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% year-on-year, down by 10.3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2017, and the growth rate was basically decreasing month by month. The rapid decline in the growth rate of M1 leads to a further widening of the scissors gap between M1 and M2 in the second half of the year (Figure 2-3).

  At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing scale stock decreased month by month, and hit new lows (Figure 2-4). At the end of 2018, the stock of social financing scale was 20.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; The scale of social financing increased by 19.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.14 trillion yuan compared with 2017; In particular, in May, the new social integration was "waist-to-waist", and in October, the new social integration decreased by nearly 66%.

  First, the low money supply has become the "new normal". In 2018, the money supply always maintained a low growth rate. From the first quarter to the end of the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 7.1%, 6.6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 8%, 8.3% and 8.1% respectively. On the one hand, this is the result of the coordinated and effective promotion of stable neutral monetary policy and financial supervision policy, which is conducive to controlling the internal leverage of the financial system and reducing the nested cycle of funds [10]. On the other hand, this is the inevitable result of the high-quality development stage of economy and finance. The growth rate of M1 dropped continuously, mainly due to the rapid development of third-party payment and money market funds, and the slowdown in sales caused by real estate regulation. The growth rate of M2 is obviously lower than that of previous years, and the average growth rate in the year is slightly lower than the sum of GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate in the same period by 0.44 percentage points, indicating that the current money supply is relatively matched with macroeconomic operation, and a stable monetary and financial environment is helpful to ensure the economic operation in a reasonable range.

  Second, the overall social integration has shrunk and the structure has been optimized. In 2018, structural deleveraging continued to advance, the effect of strict financial supervision continued to ferment, and the risk appetite of the financial system declined, which led to a sharp decrease of 2.93 trillion yuan in off-balance sheet financing for the whole year, an increase of 6.5 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing scale stock hit record lows, and the incremental scale was far less than that of the same period in 2017. However, after the non-standard financing such as interbank financing, channel financing and bank financing was squeezed out, a large number of off-balance-sheet assets were returned to the table in an orderly manner. In the second half of the year, the People’s Bank of China increased the medium-and long-term liquidity, and the local government issued a large amount of special bonds from August to October. These factors jointly boosted the proportion of on-balance-sheet credit and bond financing, which became the main support for social financing in 2018, and the social financing structure was optimized. In 2018, the proportion of new RMB loans and corporate bond financing in the scale of social financing was 81.36% and 12.88%, respectively, a significant increase of 10.2 and 10.6 percentage points compared with 2017. In addition, due to the volatility of the capital market, domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises decreased by 515.3 billion yuan in 2018.

  Third, credit tends to be short-term. In 2018, driven by the weakening of the real estate market, the high risk aversion of commercial banks and the low willingness of enterprises to invest and finance, the growth rate of short-term loans of residents and enterprises was significantly faster than that of medium-and long-term loans. In particular, the growth rate and proportion of bill financing increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, which made a great contribution to the overall credit growth. By the end of 2018, the balance of RMB loans of deposit-taking financial institutions (domestic, the same below) was 135.33 trillion yuan, up by 13.71% year-on-year, of which the balance of RMB loans of residential departments was 47.27 trillion yuan, up by 18.29% year-on-year, and short-term loans of residents increased by 21.25% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans of non-financial enterprises was 84.53 trillion yuan, up 10.43% year-on-year, and the balance of bill financing of non-financial enterprises was 5.78 trillion yuan, up 48.71% year-on-year (Figure 2-5).

  Fourth, the bond market financing first declined and then increased. In 2018, the financing function of China’s bond market was gradually restored. In the first half of the year, there was a wave of default in the credit bond market, and the performance of the local government bond market was relatively dull. Since the second half of the year, the fiscal policy has become more active, and the issuance of special bonds by local governments has obviously accelerated; The monetary policy is marginally relaxed, the liquidity gradually turns to be reasonable and abundant, and the long-term interest rate and the issuance interest rate go down accordingly [11], and private enterprise bond financing is supported through credit risk mitigation tools. Stimulated by the above favorable policies, the bond market financing picked up significantly in the second half of the year, which led to an increase in the scale of bond financing throughout the year: in 2018, the net financing amount of corporate bonds was 2.48 trillion yuan, a substantial increase of 2.03 trillion yuan compared with 2017; Local government special bonds issued 1.94 trillion yuan, and the accumulated financing amount was 1.79 trillion yuan.

  3. Structured deleveraging was solidly promoted, and the macro leverage ratio stabilized. In 2018, China’s macro leverage ratio was basically controlled and gradually stabilized, and the leverage ratio has stabilized at around 250% in the past eight quarters. At the same time, with the continuous advancement of real estate regulation and control, the growth rate of real estate loans dropped steadily. At the end of the year, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 38.7 trillion yuan, down 0.9 percentage points from 2017; During the year, new real estate loans reached 6.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.2 and 4.9 percentage points lower than those in 2017 and 2016, respectively. The upward trend of leverage ratio in the residential sector has been basically curbed. The balance of personal housing loans was 25.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4 percentage points lower than that in 2017, and the year-on-year growth rate at the end of each quarter gradually decreased and was lower than 20% (Figure 2-6). Correspondingly, monetary policy gradually focuses on stabilizing leverage and structural deleveraging in order to achieve a balance between risk prevention and steady growth.

  4. The depth of financial opening-up accelerated. In 2018, the pace of opening up in China’s financial sector was significantly accelerated, and the opening up of financial services entered a new pattern. In terms of policies, the proportion of foreign shares in the financial industry and the restrictions on business scope have been further relaxed, the market access standards of Chinese and foreign banks have approached unification, and the "pipeline" open system arrangement has been solidly promoted, which has promoted a more convenient and friendly domestic investment environment. On the market side, in 2018, overseas institutions increased their holdings in China’s bond market. During the year, the net inflow of foreign capital in the bond market was about 100 billion US dollars, accounting for 80% of the inflow of foreign capital in emerging markets. By the end of 2018, the proportion of foreign investors holding debt in China’s bond market reached 2.3%, and the proportion of national debt holding debt was 8.1%.

  (3) Financial policy

  1. The supervision has obviously strengthened its grasp of the rhythm and intensity. In 2018, financial supervision strives to find a balance between "strict supervision and risk prevention" and "wide credit and steady growth", which is a policy choice based on the objective economic situation. On the one hand, continuing the basic orientation of "strict supervision and risk prevention", the general trend of deepening financial deleveraging has not changed. In the first half of the year, the focus was on eliminating regulatory arbitrage, gradually promoting the shift from separate supervision to functional supervision, and further improving the coordination of supervision; New rules for landing asset management, maximizing arbitrage space, etc. On the other hand, to implement the spirit of the Politburo meeting in July, the word "stability" should take the lead in the second half of the year, avoiding "risks caused by risk prevention" and focusing on making up the shortcomings of supervision. The supporting rules of the new asset management regulations have been relaxed compared with market expectations; Emphasize different supervision and avoid "one size fits all"; Promote inclusive finance, increase credit support to relieve the financing difficulties of private enterprises, and effectively reduce the financing costs of entities.

  2. Give play to the joint efforts of "several lifts" and enhance policy coordination. In 2018, financial regulatory policies actively cooperated with the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, and strived to achieve the optimal policy mix and the maximum overall effect, so as to protect the smooth operation of the economy. On the one hand, guide financial institutions to help a more active fiscal policy. Cancel the upper limit of the investment ratio of commercial banks underwriting local government bonds to effectively undertake the issuance of local bonds; In accordance with the principle of marketization, increase financial support for the shortcomings in the infrastructure sector. On the other hand, with the multi-objective fine-tuning of monetary policy, through targeted credit supply, the financing difficulties of private and small and micro enterprises will be accurately alleviated to help stabilize growth; Adhere to strict supervision in key areas such as asset management, local debt and real estate credit to help stabilize leverage and prevent risks; Pay close attention to the introduction of supporting rules for the new regulations on asset management to help stabilize expectations.

  3. The overall supervision has been further improved. In 2018, the idea of financial supervision reflected the characteristics of "unified supervision and overall development". The national institutional reform plan formally established a new regulatory pattern of "one committee, one line, two meetings", and achieved full regulatory coverage while making up the shortcomings. The meeting of the Finance Committee formally put forward the idea of "establishing a bond market with unified management and coordinated development", and the unified pace of credit rating business and market law enforcement mechanism between banks and exchange bond markets accelerated.

  Third, the macroeconomic outlook

  (A) China’s macroeconomic outlook in 2019

  In 2019, under the background of the global economic downturn, there is still great uncertainty about the trend of Sino-US trade friction, which has different degrees of impact on consumption, investment, import and export. Combined with the decline of domestic labor force, the lower savings rate and the downward financial cycle, the overall economic operation will continue the process of economic downturn. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will drop to 6.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points slower than that in 2018, but it is still in the middle and high-speed growth range.

  In 2019, there are still many factors supporting economic growth. Macroeconomic policies will gradually exert their strength in the direction of steady growth, and the results of structural reforms on the supply side in the early stage will make room for countercyclical adjustment. In the process of urbanization, 10 million jobs are created every year, and the domestic consumption upgrade drives the service demand to grow rapidly, so there is still a lot of room for the development of high-end manufacturing. On the whole, there is still a large room for maneuver in economic operation in 2019, and the final result is likely to be "stable in change", and there will be no stall risk in economic growth.

  It should be pointed out that with the negative impact of trade friction on the US economy gradually emerging, it is expected that the Trump administration’s enthusiasm for responding to China’s rational problem-solving will be enhanced. Therefore, in 2019, the risk of trade friction between China and the United States is controllable as a whole, and there is little possibility of trade decoupling in the world’s top two economies.

  From the perspective of "three driving cars", 2019 will be characterized by "investment rebound, stable consumption and negative pull of net exports".

  1. In terms of investment, the growth rate of investment in three categories of fixed assets will be "two drops and one liter", and the overall rebound will be expected, and the shortcomings of infrastructure construction are expected to play a bottoming role. In 2019, the downward pressure on the economy will increase, and the countercyclical adjustment of policies will be further exerted, which will support infrastructure investment. However, this round of infrastructure rebound will mainly play the role of "bottoming out" rather than "strong stimulus", and the policy direction of strictly controlling local debt risks will not completely turn. Therefore, it is unlikely that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2019 will reproduce the high growth rate in 2008 and 2013, and it is expected to rise to around 10.0%.

  The growth rate of manufacturing and real estate investment will decline. On the one hand, factors such as the slowdown in corporate profit growth and the impact of Sino-US trade friction uncertainty on investor confidence will slow down the growth rate of manufacturing investment by about 3 percentage points in 2019. On the other hand, due to the cooling mood in the real estate market and the reduction of shed reform scale from 5.8 million to about 4.6 million, if the real estate policy is not significantly relaxed, the growth rate of real estate investment will drop to about 3.0% in 2019.

  Therefore, it is estimated that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will be around 8.0% in 2019, which is about 2 percentage points higher than that in 2018, mainly reflected in the substantial acceleration of infrastructure investment, which accounts for about 27%, while the growth rate of manufacturing investment, which accounts for about 30%, will slow down slightly, and the growth rate of real estate investment, which accounts for nearly 17%, will drop significantly.

  2. In terms of consumption, the effect of individual tax reduction appears, and the growth rate of commodity consumption is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and remain at around 9.0%. In 2019, the pull-down factors of commodity consumption mainly include the continued negative increase of automobile consumption, especially in the first half of the year; The contraction of the real estate market will also have a negative impact on the consumption of industrial chains such as building decoration, furniture and household appliances; The rapid growth of residents’ short-term loans in 2018 will continue to squeeze out consumption; The uncertainty of Sino-US trade war may also have a certain impact on consumer confidence.

  At the same time, the favorable tax reduction will increase per capita disposable income, which is expected to support commodity consumption. Considering the factors such as the increase of tax starting point, the reduction of tax rate and special deduction, it is estimated that the tax reduction in 2019 will be about 400 billion yuan, and the total social zero will be about 40 trillion yuan in 2018. Under the assumption that the marginal propensity to consume remains 0.7, the tax reduction is expected to increase the social zero growth rate by 0.7 percentage points in 2019.

  In addition, the transition from consumption to service will continue in 2019, and service consumption is expected to continue to maintain double-digit rapid growth. In recent years, with the Engel coefficient of urban residents falling below 30% (28.6% in 2017), the consumption structure of residents is shifting from commodities to services, and service consumption accounts for nearly 40% of the total terminal consumption. In 2019, with the opening up of the service industry, the service quality will continue to improve, and the transformation of consumption structure will continue. It is expected that consumption expenditures such as tourism, education, medical care and cultural entertainment will maintain a relatively rapid growth momentum.

  3. In terms of external demand, the export situation is still grim, which will be a major negative pulling factor for the domestic economy. In terms of exports, in the short term, due to the uncertain prospect of trade war, the forced adjustment of global supply chain and the tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the global economic growth momentum will continue to be weak in 2019, and the economic growth rates of the United States, Europe and Japan will all decline to varying degrees, and the volatility of emerging markets will increase and the growth momentum will slow down. The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, while emphasizing that the balance of global economic growth is declining. In addition, Sino-US trade friction tariff measures have now covered 250 billion US dollars of export commodities, and its lagging influence on China’s exports to the United States (the US market accounts for about 20% of China’s exports) will gradually emerge. Therefore, China will face a weak external demand in 2019.

  In the medium and long term, at present, China’s exports account for about 13% of the global share, and the growth space is limited. Coupled with the rapid increase in domestic labor costs, China’s consumer goods and investment goods exports will be roughly equal to the growth rate of global trade in the future, and China’s economy is gradually bidding farewell to the era of export-led.

  4. In terms of price, it is expected that the price trend will show the characteristics of "CPI going up and PPI going down", and the overall inflationary pressure is limited. The key logic behind it is that the economic growth rate will further slow down in 2019, and the output gap does not support a significant increase in inflation under the expectation of weaker aggregate demand.

  In terms of CPI, it is expected that the annual growth rate of CPI will rise slightly to about 2.5% in 2019, driven by the upward trend of "pig cycle" and higher service prices. The possibility of exceeding 3.0% in individual months is not ruled out, but the overall situation is still in a moderate state, and the trend during the period will be "low before and then high". Among them, in the second half of 2019, the effect of swine fever epidemic on pork prices will be reflected, and inflation expectations may heat up again, and its possible constraints on macroeconomic policies are worthy of attention.

  In terms of PPI, the cumulative growth rate of PPI may drop to 1.0% in 2019, as domestic capacity reduction and environmental protection and limited production are expected to be further reduced, and the increase in international oil prices will be significantly narrowed. Considering the reasons such as the change of the base number, it will show a trend of "low before and high after", and the possibility of negative growth in the first quarter will not be ruled out. However, in view of the fact that the acceleration of infrastructure construction will support the prices of basic industrial products such as steel and cement, it is still unlikely that the cumulative growth rate of PPI will return to negative growth throughout the year. Finally, considering that the terminal consumption demand is restricted, the transmission effect of PPI to CPI will not be obvious in 2019.

  5. In terms of exchange rate, the depreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar is less than that in 2018, but it is still in a state of range fluctuation, and the fluctuation range may be similar to that in 2018. Externally, the spread between China and the United States under the influence of monetary policy is an important factor affecting the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in December 2018 has made it clear that the pace of raising interest rates will slow down in 2019. As a result, the monetary policy of China and the United States will gradually end the differentiation trend in 2018 and turn into "loose" in the same direction, so the external pressure of RMB depreciation will be reduced. However, considering that the Fed has just finished raising interest rates, it will immediately become loose, and the People’s Bank of China has clearly released the signal of "marginal easing" since the second half of 2018, so the RMB exchange rate still fluctuates, depending on the interaction of monetary policies between the two countries.

  Internally, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018 did not mention the exchange rate, which shows that the tolerance of RMB exchange rate flexibility at the policy level has increased, so the internal pressure of RMB depreciation has increased. However, the People’s Bank of China’s work meeting in the fourth quarter put forward that "the RMB exchange rate should be basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and a balance should be maintained among interest rates, exchange rates and international payments". This shows that the exchange rate is still the concern of monetary policy, so the People’s Bank of China will still moderately intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary. Therefore, even if the RMB exchange rate fluctuates greatly in 2019, it will be a very short-term "diving" and will not become the norm.

  (II) Macroeconomic policy recommendations for 2019

  In 2019, China’s economic operation changed steadily, and there were worries, internal and external pressures did not decrease, and downside risks still existed. Therefore, the objective situation requires that the macro-policy in 2019 should follow the principle of "sizing up the situation, being cautious and moderate", focus on the main contradictions, give full play to the function of underpinning, further strengthen coordination and cooperation, and strive to achieve the optimal policy combination and maximum overall effect. At the same time, we must have the bottom line thinking, make unconventional policy plans and establish a forward-looking policy reserve.

  At the same time, we must also see that the long-term positive development trend of China’s economy remains unchanged, and the tough battle against risks is still on the road. In this process, the macro-policy should give consideration to demand management and supply-side reform, and ensure the continuity and stability of the policy at the same time, so as to keep the economy running in a reasonable range for a long time.

  1. Fiscal policy

  First, a more active fiscal policy should achieve synergy. We should optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure. In terms of income, we should focus on enhancing the vitality of market micro-players, reducing the burden of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, promoting the upgrading of manufacturing industry, improving per capita disposable income and expanding the domestic consumer market by implementing various tax reduction and fee reduction policies. In terms of expenditure, efforts will be made to improve the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds, reduce general expenditures, increase support for key areas, shortcomings and weak links, and prevent the growth rate of investment from continuing to decline.

  The second is to coordinate the relationship between long-term and short-term goals. In terms of short-term tasks, fiscal policy should give priority to ensuring steady growth. It is expected that with the further increase in the issuance scale of local government special bonds in 2019, various financial funds will be accelerated in place, and attention should be paid to precise efforts and targeted use. For example, it can be more active in the fields of "complementing shortcomings and benefiting people’s livelihood" such as rural revitalization, agriculture, rural areas and micro-enterprises, new infrastructure, ecological protection and narrowing regional gaps. From the long-term goal, we must adhere to the development model that does not rely on excessive debt and excessive leverage. It is necessary to be alert to the excessive growth of local government debt, conduct regular surveys, and strengthen the collection of local government debt data. The issuance of special bonds must strictly correspond to stable and reliable repayment sources; It is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism to match financial supply with local economic development, and avoid the interweaving and spreading of financial and financial risks.

  The third is to scientifically arrange the issuance of government bonds. At present, China’s government debt leverage is generally controllable, and the debt structure should be adjusted from three aspects: first, appropriately increase the issuance scale of national debt. The higher liquidity and pledge rate of national debt can improve the liquidity management level of financial institutions and form a better policy combination of steady growth with monetary policy. Secondly, strictly control the implicit debt of local governments and increase the scale of special debt issuance. While maintaining steady growth, we should take into account structural adjustment and risk prevention, and the improvement of debt transparency will help reduce the debt cost of local governments and realize a virtuous circle of debt. Finally, revitalize the stock of government bonds and expand the policy space. Support the innovation of government bond repurchase, bond lending and other transactions, and expand its scope of use as high-quality collateral; Continue to expand the investor base of local debt and improve the counter business; Moderately reduce the discount rate in policy operation and improve its efficiency in financial market.

  2. Monetary policy

  First, give full play to the role of the monetary policy toolbox. On the one hand, focus on making good use of traditional tools to ensure reasonable and sufficient liquidity, strengthen expected management and stabilize market sentiment. On the other hand, using new tools to realize "directional precision drip irrigation" can change the poor transmission of liquidity in structure and local areas, and reverse the tight credit spiral of economic downturn and financial procyclicality. Make good use of the existing toolbox and optimize the combination to maximize its effectiveness.

  Second, the exchange rate management should adhere to steady progress. On the one hand, to continue to deepen the two-way opening-up of financial markets and the reform and opening-up in the foreign exchange field, exchange rate management should not only respect the prices determined by market supply and demand, but also encourage institutions to exercise self-discipline, not give up the regulation of other departments, and strengthen countercyclical adjustment to ensure that the foreign exchange market is "open and manageable". On the other hand, actively prevent and resolve the risk of cross-border capital flow, and improve the management framework of "macro-prudential+micro-supervision".

  3. Financial policy

  First, we should pay attention to both financial support and risk prevention. In 2019, the economy is still facing downward pressure, which requires that the intensity of financial supervision should be appropriate and the rhythm should be heavy, forming a good pattern of mutual support between financial stability and stable economic operation. On the one hand, we must ensure that financial support is accurate and efficient. In view of the private economy, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of credit transmission, avoid the accumulation of funds in the financial system, continue to clean up unnecessary "channels" and "bridges", shorten the financing chain and reduce the financing cost. For local governments, financial institutions should be guided to provide funds for projects under construction and short-board investment through reasonable credit granting and subscription of special bonds. On the other hand, never relax the string of risk prevention. It is necessary to strengthen inspections and prevent financial institutions from illegally financing local governments. It is necessary to form a joint force in macro-policies, prudent policies, regulatory policies and market management, manage the financial order, and stabilize the expectations of capital and foreign exchange markets.

  The second is to build an effective financial supervision system to achieve incentive compatibility. We should respect the law of market operation, and we should not simply use administrative orders to excessively intervene in the market, so as to avoid the opposite effect of policies. In particular, we should pay attention to distinguishing policy objectives from specific means to achieve them. For example, when guiding financial institutions to support private and small and micro enterprises, we can allow a certain credit risk premium and enhance their willingness to carry out small and micro credit; The interest income of micro-credit of financial institutions can be appropriately reduced.

  1. After final verification and accounting, in 2017, the total current GDP was 82,075.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 636.7 billion yuan compared with the initial accounting; At constant prices, it increased by 6.8% compared with 2017 and decreased by 0.1 percentage point compared with the preliminary accounting.

  2. Unless otherwise specified below, GDP growth rate and related data refer to actual growth rate.

  3. In 2018, the pulling rate and contribution rate of the tertiary industry to GDP were 24.3 and 1.6 percentage points higher than those of the secondary industry, respectively.

  4. Since July 5 and August 23, China and the United States have imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion and $16 billion of imported goods in two batches; Since September 24th, the United States has imposed a 10% tariff on China’s $200 billion products exported to the United States.

  5. Here refers to the volatility between the highest value of the central parity of the US dollar against RMB 6.967 (November 1st) and the lowest value of RMB 6.2764 (April 2nd).

  6. Here refers to the cumulative value of national general public finance revenue from the beginning of the year to the current month/national general public finance budget for this year.

  7. Including education, culture, sports and media, social security and employment, medical and health care and family planning, and housing security, which are directly related to people’s livelihood; And eight categories of expenditures closely related to people’s livelihood, such as science and technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, urban and rural communities, agriculture, forestry, water, transportation, commercial services, land and marine meteorology, and grain and oil reserves.

  8. On August 14th, the Ministry of Finance issued the Opinions on Doing a Good Job in the Issuance of Special Bonds for Local Governments, which explicitly requested to speed up the issuance of special bonds, and took the end of October as the deadline for issuance in principle.

  9. Increase the scope of MLF qualified collateral to AA+, AA credit bonds and loans for small and micro enterprises.

  10. From the monetary policy implementation report of the People’s Bank of China in the first quarter of 2018.

  11. According to the data of China Bond Information Network, as of the end of 2018, the yields of 5-year and 10-year government bonds decreased by 87bp and 65bp; respectively compared with the end of 2017; The yields of 5-year AAA and AA medium-and short-term notes decreased by 131bp and 83bp respectively compared with the end of 2017.

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Bond Magazine. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Zhao Yanping HF094)

2016 China Minsheng Hotspot Scan

  Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, December 15th Title: 2016 China Minsheng Hotspot Scan

  Xinhua News Agency reporter Wu Zhendong

  In 2016, despite the downward pressure of the economy, China’s investment and guarantee in the field of people’s livelihood have not weakened at all, the first victory in poverty alleviation can be expected, the employment situation is improving, and the policies of education and medical care for the benefit of the people are constantly increasing … … One reform after another has brought people more sense of gain.

  [Poverty Alleviation] All tasks are progressing smoothly.

  The central poverty alleviation and development work conference held at the end of November 2015 sounded the charge of decisive battle against poverty. Over the past year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, the all-round poverty alleviation network has become more and more dense, and all key tasks in the fight against poverty have progressed smoothly, and good news has been frequently reported in the first year of the war.

  In order to make the poverty alleviation targets more accurate, nearly 2 million people were mobilized nationwide this year to set up a file for poverty alleviation targets to "look back". A total of 9.29 million poor people were excluded and 8.07 million were re-recorded. Under the impetus of the "five batches" project, all the ex situ poverty alleviation and relocation projects in 833 counties across the country started; Free vocational education and high school education for children from poor families are basically realized; The three systems of the new rural cooperative medical system, serious illness insurance and medical assistance for serious and serious diseases fully cover the rural poor. It is predicted that the goal of reducing poverty by more than 10 million people can be achieved this year.

  [Employment] Complete the annual objectives and tasks ahead of schedule

  Employment is the foundation of people’s livelihood. According to the latest data from Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, from January to November this year, 12.49 million people were newly employed in cities and towns in China, fulfilling the target of 10 million people in the whole year ahead of schedule. By the end of the third quarter, the national urban registered unemployment rate was 4.04%, which was lower than the annual control target.

  It is worth mentioning that this year’s "employment report card" is not only "high in total score" but also "strong in single item". Among them, 5.11 million unemployed people in cities and towns were re-employed, completing 102.2% of the annual target tasks; The number of people with employment difficulties was 1.54 million, accounting for 128.3% of the annual target, reflecting the close connection between ensuring employment and benefiting people’s livelihood.

  [Education] Formulate ten measures to promote urban-rural integration.

  Eliminate the plan of large class size, reform the schooling mechanism of children who move with them, build urban schools at the same time, promote the standardization of schools, and implement the preferential policy of rural teachers’ income distribution … … In July this year, the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Reform and Development of Urban and Rural Compulsory Education in Counties", and formulated ten measures, proposing that by 2020, the balanced development of compulsory education in counties and the equalization of basic public education services in urban and rural areas will be basically realized.

  Promoting the integration of compulsory education in urban and rural areas as a whole is a realistic need to narrow the gap between urban and rural education and complete the task of poverty alleviation through education in an all-round way, and it is also a fundamental requirement for building a well-off society in an all-round way. Reform is a complex systematic project. In the process of implementation, we must strengthen government responsibility, strengthen supervision and inspection, and open social supervision to ensure that every reform measure takes root.

  Graded diagnosis and treatment alleviates "difficulty in seeing a doctor"

  In April this year, the the State Council executive meeting determined the key points of deepening medical reform in 2016, including deepening the reform of public hospitals, promoting the construction of graded diagnosis and treatment, and promoting the "transparency" of drug prices.

  After a few months, the results are bright. The participation rate of basic medical insurance in China is fixed at over 95%, and the serious illness insurance for urban and rural residents has been fully promoted. The number of pilot cities for comprehensive reform of public hospitals has been expanded to 200, the drug supply guarantee system has been further improved, the market-oriented drug price formation mechanism has been gradually established, and the proportion of personal health expenditure in total health expenditure has been declining. More than half of the counties in the country have carried out pilot projects for the first consultation at the grassroots level, and the rate of medical treatment within the county has reached more than 80%.

  [Pension] policies are intensively introduced to fill the shortcomings of rural pension.

  China has been in the stage of aging, and "providing for the aged" has increasingly become the focus of social attention. By the end of the third quarter of this year, the number of all kinds of old-age beds in China had reached 6.959 million, with 31.6 old-age beds per thousand elderly people, an increase of 4.3% over the end of last year.

  Since the beginning of this year, various pension policies have been intensively introduced. The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance jointly launched a pilot reform of home and community care services, focusing on supporting the construction of facilities such as rural nursing homes and community day care centers. It is estimated that about 50,000 beds of various types of care services will be added after completion; The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued the "Guiding Opinions on Piloting the Long-term Care Insurance System" and launched 15 pilot cities. It is planned to explore and establish a policy framework for the long-term care insurance system suitable for the national conditions in one to two years; The Health and Family Planning Commission and the Ministry of Civil Affairs jointly issued a notice to identify 50 cities (districts) across the country as the first batch of national-level pilot units for combining medical care with nursing care, and further promote the extension of medical resources to communities and families.

  [Income] The per capita disposable income of residents and GDP grew together.

  The data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 17,735 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.4% year-on-year, and a real increase of 6.3% after deducting the price factor. The income of urban and rural residents was basically synchronized with the GDP growth rate. At the same time, the regional income gap is narrowing. From the published data of the first three quarters, the income growth rate in the western region is relatively high, and the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income of urban residents in Guizhou and Qinghai reaches 9%, leading the country.

  In November this year, the Central Office and the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Implementing the Distribution Policy Oriented to Increasing Knowledge Value". Accordingly, the income of scientific researchers, university teachers, medical staff and other groups will change greatly in the future.

  The policy of "comprehensive two children" was formally implemented, and the number of births increased significantly.

  On January 1st this year, it was officially implemented in the universal two-child policy. According to statistics, the number of applications for birth registration of Chinese citizens has increased significantly this year, and the number of births has shown a significant growth momentum. In the first half of the year, the national birth population was 8.31 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; The birth rate of two children was 44.6%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points compared with last year.

  The implementation of the universal two-child policy is an important strategic decision made by the central government based on the new situation of China’s population and economic and social development. After the implementation of the universal two-child policy, a large number of families who meet the policy will be released in a centralized way, which also brings challenges such as a significant increase in the number of elderly pregnant women, an increase in maternity risks, an increase in the shortage of pediatricians, and an increase in the pressure on maternity insurance funds in some areas. Relevant departments should step up their efforts to improve relevant facilities and give play to the positive effects of the policy.

  [Environmental protection] has been improved, and there is a long way to go.

  According to data recently released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, from January to November this year, the average number of excellent days in 338 cities at prefecture level and above was 80.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The concentration of PM2.5 was 44 μ g/m3, down 8.3% year-on-year; The concentration of PM10 was 79 μ g/m3, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%.

  From the data point of view, the concentration of particulate matter in the whole country and key areas has shown a downward trend this year, and the air quality has improved overall, achieving the annual control goal. However, since November, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas have experienced three large-scale heavy pollution weather, and many cities in Northeast China have also experienced extremely heavy pollution weather processes, reflecting that smog control has a long way to go.

Students of Yuzhang Academy claimed to have been "kidnapped" and violated the rules by being punished by "dragon whip"

  CCTV News:Recently, a school in Jiangxi called Yuzhang Academy has attracted much attention. The school claims that it can help problem of juvenile get rid of Internet addiction through Chinese studies, but many students who have studied here claim that the so-called Chinese studies in Yuzhang Academy are actually corporal punishment such as flogging and shutting down a small black room. So what is the truth? Faced with many questions, CCTV reporters contacted many parties, found several students and their parents who had studied here, and interviewed the principal and teachers of Yuzhang Academy, trying to solve the secret of this academy.

  Establish qualified private training institutions in 2013.

  A small tile-headed wall with blue bricks and a lattice window hanging in the cloister, these two poems seem to describe the building in front of us. Yuzhang Academy is one of the four major academies in Jiangxi’s history. In May 2013, with the approval of the local education department, this school named Yuzhang Academy was established in Qingshanhu District of Nanchang City. The nature of the school is a private non-academic education and training institution.

  Students come from all over the country, mostly junior high school students.

  Although Yuzhang Academy is located in Jiangxi, its students come from all over the country. At most, there are nearly 200 students, most of whom are teenagers in middle and high schools. Why does a private training institution that teaches Chinese studies attract so many children from all over the country to go to school?

  Xiaowei, who lives in Nanchang, began to study at Yuzhang Academy in September 2013. According to him, he was "kidnapped" from home by several strangers.

  Xiaowei: "I feel kidnapped. Ask them where this is and where they are taking me."

  According to Xiaowei, he was "kidnapped" to the school. Another child, Xiao Yao, also said that he was cheated in the name of eating. However, unlike Xiaowei, Xiaoyao vaguely guessed what place he was going to be sent to.

  Xiaoyao: "At that time, in my home computer, that is, in the history of search, my dad should have glanced at it before deleting it, and I just happened to see such a school. I forgot about almost such a school."

  Xiaoyao’s family lives in Shangrao, which is more than 200 kilometers away from Nanchang. His father runs a lot of business there. However, since Xiaoyao entered high school, the existing crisis between father and son has become more explosive.

  Ms. Yin, the parent of another girl in Yuzhang Academy, said that her daughter used to be like this, not only resisting communication with them, but even fighting with them. What worries Ms. Yin even more is that her daughter is crazy about mobile phones, and even in order to secretly buy mobile phones, instead of eating breakfast, she saves several or dozens of pocket money and meals to buy mobile phones.

  No way, it is the common feeling of these parents, and at this time, Yuzhang Academy in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province entered the sight of these parents.

  "Helping people with youth crisis to achieve excellent life" is a promise in the agreement signed between Yuzhang Academy and parents. The admission items of this agreement indicate that students can study at any time, and the semester is from six months to one year. The cost for six months is 31,250 yuan, and the cost for one year is 49,750 yuan.

  Such tuition fees are not cheap for many families, but parents who are willing to spend so much money to send their children in have a common expectation. They believe that through the "characteristic education" of Yuzhang Academy, these children who even their parents can’t discipline will usher in a thoroughly remoulded change after half a year.

  Why should every freshman be confined for seven days when he first arrives?

  "Yuzhang Academy" has a meditation room, and every child who has just arrived at the academy has to be kept alone in the meditation room for seven days and seven nights. The headmaster gave his own opinion about this practice.

 

  This "boredom relief room" is also called the meditation room in Yuzhang Academy, but for many students, it is a dark room that restricts their freedom. As soon as each student enters Yuzhang Academy, he will be kept here alone for seven days and seven nights.

  Xiaoyao: "I said how I could be sent to a place like this, but I didn’t tell me anything clearly. I wanted to see my parents or something, so they quarreled with me. After I scolded them, they started to fight. I started to fight with their two instructors. I am sure I can’t beat them. Then they beat me up and they left. "

  JovesongThere is a hole under the bed, and then I know what they do? That is to deliberately make a hole to scare you, that is, mosquitoes, mice and ants, and mice can climb in through this hole. "

  Except for a few books, no mobile phone and no computer, it is extremely difficult for Calvin and Xiaoyao, who are only teenagers, to stay in this empty room.

  The headmaster explained that this was Morita therapy.

  Why do students have to be kept alone for seven days when they first enter school? The headmaster of Yuzhang Academy does not deny the question of "closing a small black room". He explained that this is actually a kind of psychotherapy called Morita therapy.

  Ren Weiqiang, president of Yuzhang Academy, said: "The child may have some antagonism and reluctance when he comes at first, so we will let him get rid of this emotion through a relatively mild method,/because this teenager’s simple language communication will not be effective when he is in such an emotional state, and some even directly attack our teacher."

  After seven days, the students became quiet but said they learned to pretend.

  After seven days, the students released from the meditation room were really quiet and less grumpy. However, according to Xiaoyao, these were all produced by them.

  Whether it is camouflage or Morita therapy, President Ren Weiqiang believes that after seven days of tempering, it is very helpful for students to study in the academy next.

  Violating the "rules" will be punished by the "dragon whip"

  At the end of the seven-day confinement, the formal school life began. During the day, there was a culture class, and at night, there was a course called Calder, which many students still couldn’t get over.

  In Calder class, the culture teacher first summarizes the students’ day’s study, and then the instructor punishes the students who violate the so-called "school rules". This punishment is not just talk, but the use of a ruler and a whip, which is also called a dragon whip.

  Jovesong"I didn’t recite the ancient prose he asked me to recite that day, and then I was beaten with a steel ruler. I think I hit it ten times, but I didn’t feel any pain at all. Why? Because I feel that my heart is dead, just like a walking corpse, disheartened and without any feeling. "

  Xiaoyao: "Hiding snacks, not eating clean, not eating, boys and girls pass notes, lighter is to beat the ruler, heavier is to beat the dragon whip, anyway, it is all kinds of miscellaneous things, and the instructor can beat you with the ruler if you are unhappy."

  The two recalled that for some serious mistakes in school regulations, it was not just to beat the ruler, but to use another thing, the whip.

  Principal: Corporal punishment and non-violence are not half-terror on the Internet.

  As for corporal punishment, President Ren Weiqiang believes that it is not violence. Before playing the ruler, they sometimes beat themselves a few times to master the strength. For the ruler to quit the whip, President Ren Weiqiang said that it was not as horrible as it was uploaded online.

  Corporal punishment has clear approval procedures. Instructors specialize in punishment.

  At the same time, President Ren Weiqiang said that corporal punishment has clear approval procedures and requirements, and their regulations are not so strict, and corporal punishment will not be carried out just because of a trivial matter. Is the situation like what the headmaster said? Our reporter found an instructor who had worked in the academy for a period of time. According to him, the culture teacher would record the students who violated discipline, and the instructor’s job was to punish them.

  Zhou Wenliang used to be an instructor in Yuzhang Academy.: "The ruler is very common, that is, people basically make mistakes by hitting the ruler, so when boys and girls talk, they communicate with the opposite sex, which means fighting, hitting the teacher or trying to escape. This is very serious."

   At present, the police have launched an investigation into whether the behavior of Yuzhang Academy is suspected of breaking the law.

Reply Letter of Shaoxing Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Proposal No.207th of the Sixth Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress

Dear Representative Wang Yue Ming,

Your proposal No.207 on strengthening the management of the construction site of all urban projects and eliminating urban roads, mud and dust from the source, which was put forward at the Sixth Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress, has been received. The reply is as follows:

First of all, thank you for your concern and support for the management of construction sites in our city.

I. Basic information

At present, our city is at the peak of a new round of urban upgrading and construction. There are 420 construction sites in Yuecheng District alone, with an area of 22 million square meters under construction, 24 sections of rail transit, 83 kilometers of smart expressway, a large number of housing construction projects and renovation of old residential areas, with an average daily unearthed amount of 22,000 square meters. So many criss-crossing projects under construction are promoted at the same time, which not only promotes urban development and improves the living environment, but also objectively creates a certain degree of city.

According to the management measures for the prevention and control of dust pollution in Shaoxing, Interim Provisions on the standardized management of civilized construction in Shaoxing urban construction projects and other documents, as the competent department of the industry, we pay attention to civilized construction and dust control at the same time to minimize the impact of project construction on people’s travel and environmental quality.

Second, the promotion situation

(1) Strengthen industry supervision and standardize system construction. The first is the normalization of supervision and inspection. Since last year, all kinds of random inspections have been carried out from time to time, focusing on the special inspection actions of construction dust control such as "Building Blue Sky No.1", "Building Blue Sky No.2" and "Dust Control with Iron Fist". The city has inspected 9,477 construction sites and filed 47 cases for punishment, with a penalty amount of 1,223,500 yuan. The second is the daily supervision grid. The municipal management project compacts the responsibilities of all parties through the measures of "digitalization, gridding and differentiation", and the municipal quality and safety center distributes all the staff to all projects, forming a dual-post and dual-job management of "safety management department pays attention to the surface and gridding staff pays attention to the point", and differentiates the management of projects that are not rectified, and increases the inspection frequency of projects with poor detection data; Yuecheng District will divide the construction scope into 30 grids, carry out the responsibility to people, and carry out daily inspections. All construction sites in the city require five full coverage, namely enclosure construction, installation and spraying, bare soil coverage, road hardening, and full coverage of clean vehicles. The third is the standardization of system construction. This year, the "Measures for the Assessment of the" Five-to-One "Competition of Municipal Key Projects under Construction in Jiaokou City in 2021" and the "Measures for the Implementation of the Competition Activities for Civilized Construction Management of Construction Projects in the City in 2021" have been successively issued, with the competition ratio as the starting point, forcing all participating units to compact the main responsibility; It is planned to issue the Work Plan for Consolidation and Improvement of Ambient Air Quality of Shaoxing Construction System in 2021 and the Assessment Method for Consolidation and Improvement of Ambient Air Quality of Shaoxing Construction System in 2021, to further clarify the objectives and tasks and implement dust control measures.

(2) Intensify law enforcement and focus on dust control. According to the requirements of the Provincial Construction Department and the Municipal Blue Sky Office, we will actively organize inspection forces and increase the inspection of construction sites. Focus on checking the implementation of "eight hundred percent" in the construction site, requiring 100% closed enclosure on the construction site, 100% hardening of main roads on the construction site, 100% covering of exposed sand on the construction site, 100% washing and sealing of transport vehicles, 100% installation of dense mesh safety net on external scaffolding, 100% wet operation of earth and stone, 100% greening of uncut land and 100% off-road mobile machinery on the construction site. This year, the city organized a total of 1,270 inspections, inspected 2,200 construction sites, and punished 21 cases, with a total penalty of 467,000 yuan.

(three) to carry out competition activities, improve the reward and punishment mechanism. Set up two carriers to carry out "five-to-five" competitions for major projects (progress, quality, safety, investment and civilized construction), and carry out "civilized construction, creating excellence and winning cups" competitions for general housing construction and municipal projects, focusing on evaluating civilized construction and noise and dust reduction in construction sites. By setting up a "red and black list", we will increase rewards and punishments, add points for good integrity, and expose poor media, and incorporate the evaluation results into the assessment of SASAC, so as to force the implementation of the main responsibility. At present, there are 4 red list items and 1 black list item in the "Five-to-Five" competition. For 833 projects in the city, please refer to the civilized construction competition.

(4) Promote digital reform and realize smart governance. The first phase invested 6 million yuan to build a "smart construction" platform, effectively improved the level of safe and civilized construction on the construction site by means of information technology, and comprehensively promoted the online monitoring of dust and the installation and networking of video surveillance. At present, all the construction projects over 5,000 square meters in the city have completed the on-line monitoring of dust and the installation of over-standard alarm system, improved the data collection and analysis of the monitoring platform, optimized the supervision and management tendency according to the data analysis, carried out video capture inspections, strengthened the real-time supervision of the construction site, and helped win the blue sky defense war.

Third, the next step plan

(1) Further strengthen the linkage between departments and lay a good combination of dust control on construction sites. Cooperate with environmental protection, comprehensive law enforcement and other departments to jointly formulate relevant management measures; According to the territorial management mode, grid management is implemented by using the big data platform, and the responsibility lies with people; In-depth development of non-road mobile machinery, enclosure settings, pavement damage and other key rectification work, the implementation of joint punishment for enterprises that are not in place.

(2) Further intensify inspections and weave a protective net for dust control on construction sites. Improve the frequency of site inspections, strictly require construction enterprises to operate according to the specifications according to the requirements of "eight hundred percent", ensure that vehicles leaving the site are strictly washed, and implement closed management of easily scattered objects for engineering vehicles. Strengthen the monitoring of the construction site, make full use of the "digital construction" platform, conduct all-day video monitoring of the construction site, and promptly investigate and punish those who violate the rules and request to stop work for rectification.

(three) to further carry out civilized construction competition activities, to improve the level of civilized construction in the city. Combined with daily supervision and inspection, the competition work was carried out on the construction situation of Cheng Wenming within the jurisdiction, and the frequency and intensity of inspection were increased for the projects that ranked lower in the competition for two consecutive months; Zero tolerance will be given to those who violate the rules on the project construction site. Enterprises who violate the rules seriously or repeatedly will be recorded in the credit system, and if the circumstances are serious and cause adverse effects, their safety production licenses will be cancelled.

Finally, I sincerely thank you for your concern and support for urban construction!

Contact: Zhu Yingying; Contact information: 0575-85122383.

Shaoxing housing and urban construction bureau

June 8, 2021

Source of information: Municipal Construction Bureau